Obama Takes Maine!

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the projected winner of Sunday’s Democratic presidential caucuses in Maine, according to the Associated Press and other media outlets. Obama dominated New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton , sweeping all four states that held nominating events on the first weekend after “Super Tuesday.”

The Maine Democratic Party withheld its own call on the contest early Sunday night, in part to await results from the state’s population center of Portland. But the results released by the party so far suggest the projection is on the mark. Obama led Clinton by 59.47 percent to 39.93 percent, with nearly 95 percent of the precincts reporting in the presidential preference vote at caucuses held in 420 towns and cities around the state.

A Republican For Obama

Taken from Ben Smith's Blog...Courtesy Andrew Sullivan
Boo! Im a Republican. Yes, you have found yourself in the company of a man who wears button down Oxfords, who flies his flag every holiday and prides himself in a neatly mowed lawn. But something happened in the last few years that has brought me here to this campaign... my party changed. Where once was a belief in the power of the individual, came a heavy, overbearing government that dared to challenge how people should live their lives. And then came the war. Where once I viewed the party as one who ended wars and focused on balanced budgets and living the American dream, there was now one that started one and leveraged our dreams with debt. And then came the loss of privacy. Where once there was the beiief in live and let live, there was now a strange curiosity on the part of the government, to peer into the most private parts of our lives. Where once was a party with a rather sunny disposition came one that was dark, glowering and saw the future as a threat ... a place to be fortified ... where dreams had to be put aside to allow in, the harsh realities of our times. I wanted to dream again. I wanted to crawl out of the cave that that day in September drove us to. I want to fly my flag not for our fallen soldiers but for our ideals again, I want to befriend my neighbors, be they black or white, gay or straight, Catholic, Muslim, Christian, or Jew.
I want to think that tomorrow can be better than today. I want to live free. I want to walk down a street anywhere in the world knowing that I come from a country that is admired and is a force for good. I heard the words of Barack Obama on one cold day in January, broadcast from the frozen fields of Iowa. And it was like the wind - a chinook wind that seemed to melt away the dark and cold that was offered up by candidates from both parties. And it was like the sun - with warming words that spoke of not taking it to the Republicans with anger or revenge, but getting them to join up in something bigger than a political party ... a political force. It dared to look at things differently like having the audacity to talk to everyone... even those we do not like be they Republicans or Iranians.

It came with an easy smile and words that made you believe it was all possible. It made me feel proud to be American again. So here I am. Boo! And there are other Republicans in the room too. Yes, we are a bit out of our sorts. But like you and the millions of other Democrats and Independents, we too want to believe in something again that is not weighted down by special interests and questionable ethics and certainly not a step back to any past. For we have only achieved the great things when our mind has been on the future. I look forward to marching with you.

The Numbers and the Super Delegate to Watch

Neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton is going to arrive at the Democratic convention in Denver with enough pledged delegates to win the Democratic nomination. As this reality has dawned on people, there has been much fretting about how the unelected super delegates could determine who the nominee is. I think this is highly unlikely. The super delegates are all party elders and know what damage would be done if a group of insiders appeared to subvert the democratic process.

If one candidate leads on the three metrics of delegates won in primaries and caucuses, states won and the popular vote then the super delegates will almost certainly row in behind them. At the moment, Obama is narrowly ahead in all there categories. Things will get complicated, though, if—say—Obama has won more delegates but Hillary more votes, or if the margin of difference is determined by whether Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of their delegates for voting too early, are seated or not.

The person to watch in all this is Al Gore. When it comes to the fairness of elections, no Democrat has a higher standing. What he asks the super delegates and the candidates to do will carry huge weight at the convention. Indeed, his role is now so important that it is probably, on balance, better for the Obama campaign that he does not endorse now so that he is seen as an honest-broker at the convention.
Courtesy James Forsyth, Spectator.co.uk

After Saturday, Here are the Numbers

Adding up all the votes each of the candidates has gotten thus far, Obama 8,228,000, Clinton 8,028,000; 48.4-to 47.3. Obama has won 18 states, Clinton has won 10 states. One, New Mexico, still too close to call. The current NBC political unit delegate estimate: Obama 1,009, Clinton 944, a lead of 65. That is just amongst elected delegates. And then, of course, we have the superdelegates. Obama says he has 174 of those, Clinton has 263 of those. If you put everything together, including superdelegates, Clinton would be up 24 delegates. If you just count the elected delegates, she's--Obama's up 65.

Brokered Convention anyone?

So that begs the question who are these Super Delegates?
They're former U.S. presidents, former U.S. vice presidents, governors, senators, members of Congress, distinguished party leaders, party activists.

So the primary ends with neither Hillary, nor Barack earning the magic number 2,025 to win the nomination. So the Super Delegates decide the Democratic nominee? The danger is...(Mr. David Brody) Americans look at things as, as just--your ordinary, regular guy says, "Is this fair or not?" And, and what will happen is, if Clinton or Obama are able to take advantage of the superdelegates in the end, some Americans might just say, "You know what? That's just not fair." And the last thing a Clinton or Obama want going into a general election is to be seen as someone that didn't do it the "right way." So will this convention be brokered before the convention by say...Al Gore? He certainly would be seen as a competent fellow to determine such a mess because he knows a little something about chaotic elections. See post above.