McCain's earmark obsession

I remain completely baffled by John McCain's windmill-tilting at federal earmarks.

In last night's presidential debate, the Arizona senator first began by talking about how the United States is in a "fiscal crisis" rather than a financial or credit crisis. Yet U.S. deficit spending as a percentage of GDP is not particularly high in historical terms, and now that there is a flight to safety in the markets, the U.S. government is able to borrow money at a near-zero interest rate. Yes, there is a looming fiscal calamity ahead, but the main problem today has to do with a freezing up of the credit markets, not the federal government's deficit spending.

What's more, McCain seems not to understand that earmarks are just a tiny piece of the fiscal picture. As Barack Obama pointed out during the debate, earmarks represent just $18 billion out of a much larger pie. Compare that to the projected 2009 deficit (not counting the bailout) of roughly $500 billion. Or compare it to the total federal budget of about $3 trillion.

Here's a pie chart, via economist Mark Thoma:

CBS Debate Poll Results

The CBS poll of undecideds has more confirmatory detail. Obama went from a +18 on "understanding your needs and problems" before the debate to a +56 (!) afterward. And he went from a -9 on "prepared to be president" to a +21.

Why Voters Thought Obama Won...

Okay, we thought that McCain had a slight upper hand tonight (though we also said it wasn't a game changer, which is basically another way of saying that McCain didn't do what he had to). But the initial polls suggest that viewers give the nod to Obama in a big way.

TPM has the internals of the CNN poll of debate-watchers, which had Obama winning overall by a margin of 51-38. The poll suggests that Obama is opening up a gap on connectedness, while closing a gap on readiness.

More Results...

Specifically, by a 62-32 margin, voters thought that Obama was “more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you”. This is a gap that has no doubt grown because of the financial crisis of recent days. But it also grew because Obama was actually speaking to middle class voters. Per the transcript, McCain never once mentioned the phrase “middle class” (Obama did so three times). And Obama’s eye contact was directly with the camera, i.e. the voters at home. McCain seemed to be speaking literally to the people in the room in Mississippi, but figuratively to the punditry.

The Obama campaign is quick out the gate with this new TV ad on the economy, criticizing McCain for saying nothing about the concerns of the middle class during the debate: