Central Questions...

Courtesy New York Times...one of the central questions about the Obama candidacy, which may well go the heart of whether he can win the presidency. Is this campaign a series of surges of enthusiasm, often powered by the younger voters who form long lines waiting to hear Mr. Obama speak, that set expectations that are not met at the voting booth? Or is it rather a slow-building force, one that despite faltering in New Hampshire and falling short on Tuesday in big states like California has allowed Mr. Obama to battle one of the most formidable political dynasties to a draw and will eventually propel him to victory?

I tend to think it is the latter. No one gave the upstart junior Senator a chance last fall. Iowa shocked the nation. New Hampshire and Nevada anointed again, the inevitable one, Hillary Clinton. South Carolina made us ask...what is going on here? Super Tuesday demonstrated that this upstart from the Land of Lincoln not only has the temerity to challenge the incumbent, Hillary Clinton, but may well be able to out fundraise her and defeat head-to-head John McCain. Over the first 48 hours since Super Tuesday Hillary Clinton has raised $4 million, Barack Obama is at $7.2 million...let the drama continue....

Hillary + Barack = Brokered Convention

The Washington Post's Paul Kane: "We've done a bad job of explaining this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).

"Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination. To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obamb roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece. That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.

"So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting. Courtesy Political Wire

"Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and bothing finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates. And then the super delegates decide this thing. That's the math."