Basketball Wonder @ Age 11?

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Here are 11 reasons Hillary should withdraw now:

1. Her experience argument is bogus. Even if it were true, historically, experience is a poor predictor of presidential success. Further, anyone who claims to be prepared to be president “from day one” is lying - because no experience can prepare you for the presidency.
2. Her most successful and most-used tactic against Barack Obama in the primaries and caucuses - suppressing voter turnout - will ensure her loss in the general election as it alienates many of those who she most needs to appeal to - younger voters (under 55), black voters, and swing voters. The Clintons have also introduced identity politics into the primary - and have tried to encourage racial polarization, especially between Latinos and blacks. The Clintons are running a campaign very different from most primary campaigns - they are attacking Obama with a ferocity usually reserved for attacking Republicans in the general election. In an election that splits the country roughly 50/50, Hillary can’t afford to lose anyone. At the rate she is going now, she won’t be able to put together a winning coalition.
3. Bill Clinton became an admired elder statesmen after retiring from the presidency. The fact that he was still chasing skirt became a quirk rather than a political liability and a possible threat to the Democratic Party. And things like this might be considered charming. Now, he’s become Karl Rove with Secret Service protection, a bigger media presence, and with the same lack of conscience. Even top neutral Democrats are telling Bill to shut up. I’d like the old Bill Clinton back.
4. If Hillary Clinton wins, her success will become a lesson in how women should achieve power: marry well; put up with any humiliations your husband throws at you, and then, maybe, if you fight dirty, and ask your husband to run your campaign, you might be able to ride his coattails to your “own” political success.
5. The Clintons are relying on the laziness and stupidity of the American people to attack Barack Obama unfairly: through lies, distortions (eg. regarding Reagan), and other unconscionable means. It just goes to prove the most dangerous place to be in America is between the Clintons and an elected office.
6. Her three most significant political acts: botching health care reform and setting it back for a generation; deciding to stonewall independent investigators, Congress, and the press on Whitewater, and voting for war with Iraq.
7. The Democratic Party has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to re-align the country and reinvigorate liberalism and America. Hillary Clinton has shown no interest in seizing this opportunity or any capacity to rally Americans to a broad consensus. She remains a highly polarizing figure. Her winning strategy does not involve winning a significant majority but eking out a 51% win by micro-targeting, niche marketing, and espousing incremental targeted policies - all working off of a broadly Republican status quo.
8. The Clintons are fundamentally and irredeemably corrupt. And we don’t need to have a Clinton dynstasty to rival the Bush dynasty.
9. No other candidate can rally the Republican base and right-leaning independents as effectively as Hillary Clinton.
10. Hillary Clinton use language exactly as George Orwell lamented in “Politics and the English Language” - to hide her true intent and demonize her opponents.
11. Her breakthrough moment came when she her eyes got misty over how much effort she had put into making the country better. Courstesy 2parse.com

THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT

Now that Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina have voted, at least in one party, one thing is perfectly clear: While the identities of the two major-party nominees are not yet certain, the ranks on both sides have thinned dramatically and the finalists have emerged. For the Democrats, the nominee will either be Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, in that order of probability, and for the Republicans, John McCain or Mitt Romney, with Rudy Giuliani a longshot possibility should he win Florida on January 29th. Notice that we said "win", not second place, for Giuliani. Unquestioned victory in the Sunshine State is now Rudy's only chance to be taken seriously since he has done miserably in the first five contests and has chosen to campaign almost exclusively of late in Florida.

On the Democratic side, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada have all been highly competitive. Obama won the Hawkeye State by +8, and Clinton won the Granite State by +3 and the Silver State by +6. Obama is favored in South Carolina and he needs the victory on Saturday badly to keep Clinton from winning three in a row. Should Clinton capitalize on the electorate's newfound focus on the economy (rather than Iraq) and utilize her husband's appeal to African-American voters to score an upset in the Palmetto State, then she would be justified in requesting the title of undisputed Democratic frontrunner. With a win in South Carolina, she would likely win Florida handsomely a few days later, setting the stage for a very solid performance on Super Duper Tsumani Tuesday on February 5th. On the other hand, should Obama capture South Carolina, he would set the pattern of back-and-forth victories that would enable him to survive a loss in Florida and go on to win his share of states and delegates on February 5th. To read more of Larry Sabato's article Crystalball '08

Dissent of the Day: Bill's role

I've gotten a few emails today from women who aren't comfortable with Bill Clinton's role, and didn't buy my argument that he's helping the campaign, the most clearly-argued of which came from Lori Quinn in Glendale, CA.

It obviously takes more than one (Obama-supporting) woman to make a trend, but it's a plausible argument, and I wondered if other readers feel the same way, or differently.

I am a mid-forties Democratic leaning (occasionally Republican voting) college-educated working mom. This label would neatly apply to most of my friends. I am admittedly an Obama supporter, but not antagonist to Hillary. I've been surprised by the affinity amongst other similarly situated women out here to Hillary's candidacy. They have been generally excited about prospect of a female president, regardless of my arguments that Hillary does not represent a self-made women in the mold of say Margaret Thatcher. Many of my politically-minded girlfriends watched the nationally televised d, ebate from New Hampshire (apparently we don't go out on Saturday nights any more) and I could have told you that the backlash amongst women and the rallying to Hillary was in full force, even while the media missed it until the votes were in.

However, something funny has happened the last couple of days that was crystallized amongst those watching highlights of last night's debate. Around the office today, a number of women who were definitely in the Hillary camp are starting to feel a little sick to their stomach about the role Bill Clinton's is playing. One remarked that she thought she would be voting for the first women president, not a trojan horse for Bill Clinton's overactive ambition. Another friend I thought last week would definitely vote for Hillary labeled them the "Dynastic Duo" this morning and said she may switch to Obama. And finally, my best friend, who already sent in her absentee ballot says, she's got serious "buyer's remorse" saying she thought she had voted for the first women president, but now she's not so sure she's advanced or hurt women everywhere by voting for Hillary.

I think the media is missing the point like they did in NH. Bill's role as of late is undermining the very strength derived from her seeming historic candidacy. Suddenly it doesn't look so historic, but simply a repeat of history. Again, I'm speaking from the anecdotal perspective from women like myself here in So Cal, but this tactic seems to backfiring amongst my peer group in a significant way. Courtesy Ben Smith @ Politico