Obama Closing Gap in Texas, Ohio

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll takes a look at the two big March 4 primaries and finds Sen. Barack Obama within striking distance of Sen. Hillary Clinton in each.

Texas: Clinton 48%, Obama 47%
Ohio: Clinton 50%, Obama 43%

Key finding: "A quarter in Texas, and a third in Ohio, say they could change their minds or are undecided."

Complete survey results are available.

Barack Obama: Target engaged, two-front assaults

Sen. Barack Obama, fresh from 10 consecutive state election and caucus victories in his bid for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination, has formally registered as Target No. 1.

Both his rival for the party’s nomination, Sen. Hillary Clinton, and the likely Republican candidate, Sen. John McCain, have taken square aim at the junior senator from Illinois as two of the biggest primaries of the season arrive – the votes in Ohio and Texas on March 4.

The attention of both Clinton and McCain demonstrates just how Obama has come from the town square in Springfield a little over one year ago when he amassed the first of many large crowds to respond to his calls of hope and change.

And the substantive material of the charges which both are leveling at Obama demonstrate just how strong he may be: They both are challenging his experience.

But it is, indeed, the experience of both Clinton and McCain which is causing many voters concern: Voters in both parties are looking at Clinton’s experience as a polarizing figure in American politics, and they are weighing that idea of Clinton II; conservative Republicans are looking at McCain’s experience in immigration reform, campaign finance reform and tax-cutting, and moderate to liberal Republicans are looking at his experience of support for the war and interrogation policies of an administration he long criticized for its conduct of both.

And, ultimately, voters in both parties are looking at Obama – slightly ahead in the Democratic delegate count, far ahead on the inspiration meter, and posing one ripe target for the Texas and Ohio elections which already are underway today with early voting in Texas. Read more of Mark Silva @ The Swamp

Obama Goes 10-0

Obama goes 10-0: The best way to end two days of tough press coverage? You go out and win a contested state -- and a general election battleground, to boot -- by 17 points. That’s exactly what Obama did in Wisconsin yesterday, and when you add his victory late last night in Hawaii, he’s now an eye-popping 10-0 since February 5. What’s more, every single win after Super Tuesday has been in the double digits, the narrowest margin being last night’s 17-point win. Yes, Obama outspent Clinton in Wisconsin. Yes, he campaigned in the state longer than she did. And, yes, Madison is full of potential Obama base supporters: college students and highly educated adults. But demographically, Wisconsin was a perfect place for Clinton to stop Obama’s momentum. And she tried with negative TV ads (hitting Obama on health care, Social Security, and not participating in debates), mailings (slamming him on health care and his “present” votes), and a well-timed oppo hit (on Obama lifting lines from Deval Patrick’s speeches). And still, per the exit polls, Obama won among those who decided on Election Day (though it was closer), as well as in the last three days. There's an argument that some in the Clinton campaign can make that the negative stuff was just starting to work. Then again, it was a 17-point win...
Courtesy First Read

Death and Taxes, 2008

A great site to point, click and learn.
A Visual Guide To Where Your Federal Tax Dollars Go...

Steadfast McCain ally sparks veep talk

Even through the McCain campaign’s darkest days in 2007, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty remained a steadfast ally to the Arizona senator in his bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

As a result, with John McCain as the clear GOP frontrunner and insider talk turning to speculation about his possible running mate, party insiders are now buzzing about the 47-year-old, second-term governor’s vice-presidential prospects.

“First of all, his age is attractive,” Weber says, hinting at the nearly quarter-century difference between his fellow Minnesotan and the 71-year-old McCain. “Second, he’s from outside Washington. Third, he represents a battleground part of the country. And he has a nice balance of, on one hand being totally acceptable to conservative wing of the party, especially to social conservatives, but at the same time sharing a couple of key maverick strains of thought with McCain.” Read more @ Politico

Oregon 2008 Presidential Election

A poll of likely Oregon general election voters conducted on February 13 shows Senator Obama leading Senator McCain 49% to 40% and Senator McCain leading Senator Clinton 45% to 42%.

Obama is viewed favorably by 66% of likely Oregon voters and unfavorably by 31%.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 42%.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 50%. Here are the details of Rasmussen Reports

Senior class politics

Much has been made of how Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton would both be historic firsts as president. But so would John McCain: he’d be the oldest president ever inaugurated for a first term. McCain boosters, understandably, don’t shout about this from the roof tops. But there is reason to think based on the Republican primaries that he has special appeal to elderly voters in the way that Obama does to African-Americans and Clinton to women even if the effect is less pronounced in McCain's case.

McCain’s support among seniors might well grow in a general election match up with Obama. As Jonathan Alter points out in Newsweek, the age gap between the two of them would be the largest ever between the two major party nominees in a presidential election and given the youth triumphalism that there is on the periphery of the Obama campaign it is easy to imagine elderly voters gravitating towards McCain.

Encouragingly for the Republicans, four of the five states with the highest proportions of seniors are swing states. McCain’s age might turn out not to be a handicap but a crucial boon to his candidacy. See more of James Forsyth

Some Superdelegates See the Value of Waiting

As Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton scramble to woo superdelegates, some Democratic superdelegates say they have little incentive to choose sides early if the presidential nomination fight may not be decided until, or just before, the party’s convention in August.

“The power of the superdelegates at this point is to hold out,” said Rep. Marcy Kaptur , one of several Ohio lawmakers who has yet to make an endorsement with less than three weeks left before the March 4 Buckeye State primary.

“I’m going to hang loose,” said fellow Ohioan Tim Ryan .

Ryan and Kaptur are in good company sitting on the sidelines for a variety of reasons, including the personal political risks and rewards, leverage on an issue or set of issues, and undetermined personal preferences. Read more @ CQ Politics

Barack Obama on Iraq, Opposition from the Start

Do you suppose Hillary and John held these views? He separates himself between those two presidential candidates...now voters must choose.

Obama, Wisconsin Ad

The Beginning of the End?

First Read...Here's the math: For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead -- which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote -- she'll have to win 55% of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama's way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, that percentage rises to 57%. Toss in likely Obama victories in Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then Clinton's percentage need tops 60% of the remaining delegates available. And this is simply for her to regain the pledged delegate lead…

If Clinton were in the position Obama's in right now, how many folks would be writing Obama's obit?

The Real Magic Number is 1,627?

In 2008, 3,253 delegates will be chosen through caucuses and primaries to represent Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton at the Democratic National Convention.

Once one of the candidates has won a majority of those democratically selected delegates (also known as pledged delegates), the only way his or her opponent could win the nomination is with the support of the 796 unelected, unaccountable superdelegates -- in the process overturning the judgment of the voters.

50%+1 of 3,253 is 1,627. That's the real magic number.

Once a candidate has 1,627 pledged delegates, he or she will win the nomination -- unless the superdelegates step in and reverse the decision of the voters.

At present, CNN estimates 986 pledged delegates for Obama and 924 for Clinton. (John Edwards also has 26.)

That means there are still 1,317 pledged delegates left to be awarded.

Obama must win at least 48.7% of them to hit his magic number.

Clinton must win 53.4% of the remaining delegates to her magic number. In other words, even if Clinton won 53% of the remaining delegates, she would still fall short of a democratically elected majority.

(The numbers aren't perfect mirrors of each other because John Edwards won 26 delegates.)

Later in the day, I'll post some graphs to make this easier to visualize, and tonight voters will select another 176 delegate. After those delegates are chosen, a full two-thirds of all delegates will have been picked.

Obama won the first contest in Iowa and as the calendar winds down, he has led wire-to-wire: from start to finish.

Will he be able to sustain the lead? No one can say for sure.

But one thing is clear right now: Barack Obama is winning.

OBAMA, THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE? YES HE CAN!

I believe that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary and win the Democratic nomination. I think that this weekend’s victories in states as diverse as Washington State, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Maine illustrates his national appeal and demonstrates Hillary’s inability to win in states without large immigrant and Latino populations.

Hillary’s results on Super Tuesday, which amounted to a draw with Obama, will be her high water mark and will represent the closest she will ever come to the party nomination.


Right now, CBS has Obama ahead in elected delegates with 1134, while Hillary has only 1131.By the time Virginia, Maryland, DC, Wisconsin, and Hawaii vote during the next week, Obama will have a lead over Clinton of about 100 delegates, even counting the super delegates who have thus far committed themselves.

March 4th will, at worst, be a wash for Obama with his probably wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont offsetting his probable defeat in Texas. (Although in Texas’ open primary, Republicans and Independents may flock to the Dem primary to beat Hillary).

And then come a list of states almost all of which should go for Obama, including likely victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana. By the convention, he will have more than enough delegates to overcome the expected margins Hillary may rack up among super delegates.

And don’t bet on all the super delegates staying hitched to Hillary. These folks are politicians, half of them public office holders who are really good at reading the handwriting on the wall and really bad at gratitude for past favors.

Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. But, given the consistently amazing performance of Obama, his superior organizational and fund-raising skills, his inspiration of young people, and the flat and completely uninspiring performance by Hillary, it looks to me like it will be Obama as the Democratic nominee.

Courtesy Dick Morris
Probably the most prominent American political consultant, Dick Morris is almost universally credited with piloting Bill Clinton to a stunning comeback re-election victory in 1996 after the president lost Congress to the Republicans two years before. Morris has become a familiar figure as a commentator for the Fox News Channel. He makes over four hundred appearances each year and is well known for hard-hitting, nonpartisan, objective commentary about the U.S. political scene. He writes a weekly column for the New York Post and the Hill Magazine in the U.S. and the National Post in Canada.

Obama Takes Maine!

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the projected winner of Sunday’s Democratic presidential caucuses in Maine, according to the Associated Press and other media outlets. Obama dominated New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton , sweeping all four states that held nominating events on the first weekend after “Super Tuesday.”

The Maine Democratic Party withheld its own call on the contest early Sunday night, in part to await results from the state’s population center of Portland. But the results released by the party so far suggest the projection is on the mark. Obama led Clinton by 59.47 percent to 39.93 percent, with nearly 95 percent of the precincts reporting in the presidential preference vote at caucuses held in 420 towns and cities around the state.

A Republican For Obama

Taken from Ben Smith's Blog...Courtesy Andrew Sullivan
Boo! Im a Republican. Yes, you have found yourself in the company of a man who wears button down Oxfords, who flies his flag every holiday and prides himself in a neatly mowed lawn. But something happened in the last few years that has brought me here to this campaign... my party changed. Where once was a belief in the power of the individual, came a heavy, overbearing government that dared to challenge how people should live their lives. And then came the war. Where once I viewed the party as one who ended wars and focused on balanced budgets and living the American dream, there was now one that started one and leveraged our dreams with debt. And then came the loss of privacy. Where once there was the beiief in live and let live, there was now a strange curiosity on the part of the government, to peer into the most private parts of our lives. Where once was a party with a rather sunny disposition came one that was dark, glowering and saw the future as a threat ... a place to be fortified ... where dreams had to be put aside to allow in, the harsh realities of our times. I wanted to dream again. I wanted to crawl out of the cave that that day in September drove us to. I want to fly my flag not for our fallen soldiers but for our ideals again, I want to befriend my neighbors, be they black or white, gay or straight, Catholic, Muslim, Christian, or Jew.
I want to think that tomorrow can be better than today. I want to live free. I want to walk down a street anywhere in the world knowing that I come from a country that is admired and is a force for good. I heard the words of Barack Obama on one cold day in January, broadcast from the frozen fields of Iowa. And it was like the wind - a chinook wind that seemed to melt away the dark and cold that was offered up by candidates from both parties. And it was like the sun - with warming words that spoke of not taking it to the Republicans with anger or revenge, but getting them to join up in something bigger than a political party ... a political force. It dared to look at things differently like having the audacity to talk to everyone... even those we do not like be they Republicans or Iranians.

It came with an easy smile and words that made you believe it was all possible. It made me feel proud to be American again. So here I am. Boo! And there are other Republicans in the room too. Yes, we are a bit out of our sorts. But like you and the millions of other Democrats and Independents, we too want to believe in something again that is not weighted down by special interests and questionable ethics and certainly not a step back to any past. For we have only achieved the great things when our mind has been on the future. I look forward to marching with you.

The Numbers and the Super Delegate to Watch

Neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton is going to arrive at the Democratic convention in Denver with enough pledged delegates to win the Democratic nomination. As this reality has dawned on people, there has been much fretting about how the unelected super delegates could determine who the nominee is. I think this is highly unlikely. The super delegates are all party elders and know what damage would be done if a group of insiders appeared to subvert the democratic process.

If one candidate leads on the three metrics of delegates won in primaries and caucuses, states won and the popular vote then the super delegates will almost certainly row in behind them. At the moment, Obama is narrowly ahead in all there categories. Things will get complicated, though, if—say—Obama has won more delegates but Hillary more votes, or if the margin of difference is determined by whether Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of their delegates for voting too early, are seated or not.

The person to watch in all this is Al Gore. When it comes to the fairness of elections, no Democrat has a higher standing. What he asks the super delegates and the candidates to do will carry huge weight at the convention. Indeed, his role is now so important that it is probably, on balance, better for the Obama campaign that he does not endorse now so that he is seen as an honest-broker at the convention.
Courtesy James Forsyth, Spectator.co.uk

After Saturday, Here are the Numbers

Adding up all the votes each of the candidates has gotten thus far, Obama 8,228,000, Clinton 8,028,000; 48.4-to 47.3. Obama has won 18 states, Clinton has won 10 states. One, New Mexico, still too close to call. The current NBC political unit delegate estimate: Obama 1,009, Clinton 944, a lead of 65. That is just amongst elected delegates. And then, of course, we have the superdelegates. Obama says he has 174 of those, Clinton has 263 of those. If you put everything together, including superdelegates, Clinton would be up 24 delegates. If you just count the elected delegates, she's--Obama's up 65.

Brokered Convention anyone?

So that begs the question who are these Super Delegates?
They're former U.S. presidents, former U.S. vice presidents, governors, senators, members of Congress, distinguished party leaders, party activists.

So the primary ends with neither Hillary, nor Barack earning the magic number 2,025 to win the nomination. So the Super Delegates decide the Democratic nominee? The danger is...(Mr. David Brody) Americans look at things as, as just--your ordinary, regular guy says, "Is this fair or not?" And, and what will happen is, if Clinton or Obama are able to take advantage of the superdelegates in the end, some Americans might just say, "You know what? That's just not fair." And the last thing a Clinton or Obama want going into a general election is to be seen as someone that didn't do it the "right way." So will this convention be brokered before the convention by say...Al Gore? He certainly would be seen as a competent fellow to determine such a mess because he knows a little something about chaotic elections. See post above.

Could Obama be Colin Powell's choice?

CNN showed an interview with former Gen. Colin Powell last night in which the former secretary of state played his cards close to his chest when Wolf Blitzer asked him who he'd be supporting for president.

But based on his comments about the need for a presidential candidate who could repair America's standing in the world, Powell at times seemed to be indicating a strong inclination towards Sen. Barack Obama. Here are a few of Colin Powell's comments:

And I will ultimately vote for the person I believe brings to the American people the kind of vision the American people want to see for the next four years. A vision that reaches out to the rest of the world, that starts to restore confidence in America, that starts to restore favorable ratings to America.

Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years. I am going to be looking for the candidate that seems to me to be leading a party that is fully in sync with the candidate, and a party that will also reflect America's goodness and America's vision.

And I will be looking for the candidate that I think will be the most competent candidate. The one who can deal with problems and bring the government together with the Congress to solve these problems.

and

I think that Mr. Obama has done an incredible job in coming to where he is now on the Democratic side of this campaign. And I think he's been an exciting person on the political stage. He has energized a lot of people in America. He has energized a lot of people around the world. And so I think he is worth listening to and seeing what he stands for.

There are some positions he has that I wouldn't support, but that's the case with every candidate out there. And I think every American has an obligation right now at this moment in our history to look at all the candidates and to make a judgment not simply on the basis of ideology, or simply on the basis of political affiliation, but on the basis of, who is the best person for all of America and which party and what does that party look like? And how does that candidate relate to that party and the different wings of the party? And which party and which candidate is best able to take America in a positive direction over the next four years?

Photo of the Day

Woman in Red in Iraq. Courtesy Staff Sgt. Russell Lee Klika photo

Newsweek Poll: The Horse Race Continues...

The latest Newsweek national poll shows the Democratic race is a toss up with Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. Hillary Clinton, 42% to 41%.

Key findings: "Obama's support is strongest among African-Americans (68%), college graduates (49%) and men (47%). Clinton enjoys more support among those with a high-school education or less (48%), whites (44%), women (44%) and voters 60 and older (44%)." In the GOP race, Sen. John McCain holds a sizable lead over Mike Huckabee, 51% to 32%.

In The Know: New Iraqi Law Requires Waiting Period For Suicide Vest Purchases

Obama vs Clinton Hollywood Democratic Debate 3

The Missing New Mexico Ballots

The New Mexico Democratic Party caucus may be tainted by three ballot boxes that spent the night in the home of the Rio Arriba County party chair or the homes of other local election officials instead of being reported to the state party.

Those ballots still haven’t been counted, but they have been retrieved by the state party.

Several sources told me the ballot boxes spent the night at the home of Rio Arriba County Democratic Party Chair Theresa Martinez, whose state-lawmaker husband, Sen. Richard Martinez, endorsed Hillary Clinton. But Richard Martinez told Santa Fe New Mexican reporter Kate Nash that the boxes actually spent the night in the homes of three polling-place managers. He gave Nash no explanation for why the results from those ballots weren’t reported to the state party last night and why they were instead kept overnight in officials’ homes.

“The site managers locked them and they kept them and they took them to my wife this morning,” Nash quoted Richard Martinez as saying. State party officials and Theresa Martinez have not returned my calls seeking comment.

The three ballot boxes from Rio Arriba County and a fourth from Sandoval County account for the 2 percent of precincts that haven’t yet reported results from Tuesday’s caucus. With about 200 votes separating Clinton and Barack Obama, that’s huge. We’re talking about the ballots from half the polling places in Rio Arriba County.

I want to make sure this point is emphasized: Roughly half the votes from Rio Arriba County spent the night in the privacy of the home or homes of one or more election officials in boxes those officials may have had the ability to open. All the county party chair had to do last night to report the results was make a phone call. That never happened.

The ballot boxes were retrieved from Theresa Martinez by the state party this morning. I understand there was a big snowstorm up there, and I realize people were up late and might have slept in this morning. It’s possible – perhaps even likely – that there is nothing fishy going on here.

But there are valid concerns. Rio Arriba County has a history of election scandal.

The Obama and Clinton campaigns should have lawyers there trying to figure out what’s happening and ready to act if necessary. My understanding is that Obama attorneys are already on their way. The state party needs to quickly resolve this and tell the public how it’s going to allay fears that the election process is tainted beyond repair.

If the ballots are disqualified, voters are disenfranchised. If they’re counted, the process may be tainted. This is an incredibly close race. You have to wonder if, at the end of it all, the losing candidate will petition the DNC to not seat some or all of New Mexico’s delegates, arguing that the process here was fatally tainted. I wrote earlier today about a number of other problems with Tuesday’s caucus. This only adds to the list.

A number of Democrats have told me they’re furious with the state party over these issues. I’m trying to get to the bottom of it. Check back later today for updates.
Courtesy Heath Haussmen

Obama One, McCain Two, and Clinton Three

A new Time magazine poll compares potential general election match ups:

Obama 48%, McCain 41%
Clinton 46%, McCain 46%

According to the poll director, the difference is that "independents tilt toward McCain when he is matched up against Clinton But they tilt toward Obama when he is matched up against the Illinois Senator."

The question is do the Democrats want to win the White House or nominate the first women to be President?

Why Republicans Fear Obama and Delight in Hillary

Mr. Obama will not be easy for Republicans to attack. He will be hard to get at, hard to address. There are many reasons, but a primary one is that the fact of his race will freeze them. No one, no candidate, no party, no heavy-breathing consultant, will want to cross any line--lines that have never been drawn, that are sure to be shifting and not always visible--in approaching the first major-party African-American nominee for president of the United States.

He is the brilliant young black man as American dream. No consultant, no matter how opportunistic and hungry, will think it easy--or professionally desirable--to take him down in a low manner. If anything, they've learned from the Clintons in South Carolina what that gets you. With Mr. Obama the campaign will be about issues. "He'll raise your taxes." He will, and I suspect Americans may vote for him anyway. But the race won't go low.

Mrs. Clinton would be easier for Republicans. With her cavalcade of scandals, they'd be delighted to go at her. They'd get medals for it. Consultants would get rich on it.

The Democrats have it exactly wrong. Hillary is the easier candidate, Mr. Obama the tougher. Hillary brings negative; it's fair to hit her back with negative. Mr. Obama brings hope, and speaks of a better way. He's not Bambi, he's bulletproof.

The biggest problem for the Republicans will be that no matter what they say that is not issue oriented--"He's too young, he's never run anything, he's not fully baked"--the mainstream media will tag them as dealing in racial overtones, or undertones. You can bet on this. Go to the bank on it.

The Democrats continue not to recognize what they have in this guy. Believe me, Republican professionals know. They can tell.
Courtesy Peggy Noonan @ Wall Street Journal

Central Questions...

Courtesy New York Times...one of the central questions about the Obama candidacy, which may well go the heart of whether he can win the presidency. Is this campaign a series of surges of enthusiasm, often powered by the younger voters who form long lines waiting to hear Mr. Obama speak, that set expectations that are not met at the voting booth? Or is it rather a slow-building force, one that despite faltering in New Hampshire and falling short on Tuesday in big states like California has allowed Mr. Obama to battle one of the most formidable political dynasties to a draw and will eventually propel him to victory?

I tend to think it is the latter. No one gave the upstart junior Senator a chance last fall. Iowa shocked the nation. New Hampshire and Nevada anointed again, the inevitable one, Hillary Clinton. South Carolina made us ask...what is going on here? Super Tuesday demonstrated that this upstart from the Land of Lincoln not only has the temerity to challenge the incumbent, Hillary Clinton, but may well be able to out fundraise her and defeat head-to-head John McCain. Over the first 48 hours since Super Tuesday Hillary Clinton has raised $4 million, Barack Obama is at $7.2 million...let the drama continue....

Hillary + Barack = Brokered Convention

The Washington Post's Paul Kane: "We've done a bad job of explaining this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).

"Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination. To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obamb roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece. That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.

"So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting. Courtesy Political Wire

"Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and bothing finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates. And then the super delegates decide this thing. That's the math."

In Honor...

Five reasons Hillary should be worried

1. She lost the delegate derby. Pure and simple, this is a war to win delegates, one that might not be decided until this summer’s Democratic convention.

And when the smoke cleared this morning, it appeared that Barack Obama had ended up with slightly more delegates in the 22 states.

Obama’s campaign says the senator finished ahead by 14 delegates.

With results still coming in, Clinton’s campaign says the candidates finished within five or six delegates of each other. Either way, Super Tuesday was essentially a draw.

Clinton may still hold the edge overall, but Obama is closing in rapidly.

2. She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago.

At the time, national polls showed Clinton with a commanding lead — in some cases, by 10 points or more. That dominance is now gone.

One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him.

This is especially troubling for Clinton since the schedule slows dramatically now and a full month will pass before the next big-state showdown.

All of this allows candidates ample time to introduce themselves to voters in each state — which plays to Obama’s core strengths.

3. She lost more states. Obama carried 14 states, six more than Clinton, and showed appeal in every geographical region.

His win in bellwether Missouri was impressive by nearly every measure, marked by victories among men and women, secular and churchgoing voters, and urban and suburban voters.

4. She lost the January cash war. Money chases momentum, so Obama crushing’s 2-to-1 fundraising victory last month is revealing.

He raised more than $31 million; Clinton raised less than $14 million. The implication is hard to ignore: Democratic activists and donors are flocking to Obama at a pace that could have a profound effect on the race going forward.

5. The calendar is her enemy. Now that more than half the states have weighed in, there is a fairly predictable formula for determining who is most likely to win the upcoming contests.

In caucus states, Obama’s organizational strength shines: He has won seven of eight. Up next are three more caucus states, Washington, Nebraska and Maine.

Obama also runs tremendously well in states with large African-American populations, another promising sign since next Tuesday’s three primaries are in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia — all of which have significant percentages of black voters.

Then comes another caucus state, Hawaii, where Obama is viewed as a native son.

The bottom line is that it figures to be another month before Clinton hits a stretch of states — places like Ohio and Pennsylvania — where she will be strongly favored to win.

So it couldn’t be any clearer as to why the supposedly inevitable candidacy is anything but — even when she’s supposedly winning. Courtesy Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen @ Politico.com

Hillary $5 Million Dollar Loan

"We are very frustrated because we have a Supreme Court that seems determined to say that the wealthier have more right to free speech than the rest of us. For example, they say you couldn’t stop me from spending all the money I’ve saved over the last five years on Hillary's campaign if I wanted to, even though it would clearly violate the spirit of campaign finance reform," Bill Clinton, December 24, 2007.

So this explains...Hillary's $5 million dollar loan!
It's four times Obama's net worth. But she's the alleged tribune of the poor. Like her husband was black. And whence exactly did that $5 million come from? Her book royalties? Or did her husband bankroll it? Or was it drawn from tabloid plutocrat Ron Burkle's $20 million fork-over to Bill? These are all tantalizing questions. Maybe someone in the press will demand an answer. Andrew Sullivan

The Crying Game...Yes, She Did It, Again!

The second bout of public tears just before a crucial primary vote - after no evidence that Senator Hillary Clinton has a history of tearing up in front of the cameras - provokes the unavoidable question: should feminists actively vote against Clinton to defend the cause of female equality?

She is, it should be conceded, the most viable female candidate for the presidency in history. But feminism isn't just about women wielding power. Female monarchs and despots have ruled throughout history - and it was no thanks to feminism. Few would see Elizabeth I or a dynast like Eva Peron as feminist role models. What matters is not that they came to such prominence; but how they did it. Inheriting office is no achievement. In some ways, inheriting it, when you could have won it alone, is a rebuke to feminism. What marks a true feminist is a woman who gains democratic office through strictly meritocratic means. Think of Margaret Thatcher: a woman who came from lowly beginnings to master a chemistry degree and a legal career in the 1940s and 1950s, who won a seat in parliament single-handedly and eventually became a three-term prime minister for the Conservative party. Yes: the Conservative party. You think she didn't have to deal with prejudice and chauvinism? More than Hillary Clinton will ever know. But she never engaged for a second in the gender politics and nepotistic shenanigans that Clinton has. Thatcher had a rich husband but he was not a stepping stone to politics. She had two children, but never used them for public attention or photo-ops. She did it all - indisputably - on her own merits.

Hillary Clinton could have done the same. Continue article @ Andrew Sullivan

The first cry...she had a moment one can accept that, but today at Yale University really smacks of political trickery. It is a clear stunt, pathetic, is she really this desperate?

FBI wants database of Americans' physical traits

FBI expected to award $1 billion contract to help collect data on people
Privacy advocate says it's the first step toward a "surveillance society"
FBI says it's needed to help track terrorists and other criminals
Palm prints and optical eye scans likely to become more common
Read full article @ CNN

Clinton Health Plan May Mean Tapping Pay

Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday she might be willing to garnish the wages of workers who refuse to buy health insurance to achieve coverage for all Americans.

Clinton has not always specified the enforcement measures she would embrace, but when pressed on ABC's ``This Week,'' she said: ``I think there are a number of mechanisms'' that are possible, including ``going after people's wages, automatic enrollment.''

Clinton said such measures would apply only to workers who can afford health coverage but refuse to buy it, which puts undue pressure on hospitals and emergency rooms. With her proposals for subsidies, she said, ``it will be affordable for everyone.''

And she is going to tell us who can afford it? Major mistake on her part...Obama needs to put this in an Ad immediately!

Face of the Day

Courtesy Staff Sgt. Russell Lee Klika photo

Iraq...Mentally Ill as Suicide Bombers?

Two mentally disabled women were strapped with explosives Friday and sent into busy Baghdad markets, where they were blown up by remote control, a top Iraqi government official said.

The bombs killed at least 98 people and wounded more than 200 at two popular pet markets on the holiest day of the week for Muslims, authorities said.

In both bombings, the attackers were mentally disabled women whose explosive belts were remotely detonated, Gen. Qasim Atta, spokesman for Baghdad's security plan, told state television.

Atta said the women were strapped with dynamite and ball bearings, citing members of the bomb squad. The explosives were detonated via cell phone, he said.

An Atta aide said that people referred to the bomber at central Baghdad's al-Ghazl market as the "crazy woman" and that the bomber at a second market had an unspecified birth disability.

The aide said authorities believe the women were unaware of plans to detonate the explosives.

Obama, Clinton Statistically Tied in National Poll

Two days before the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses, Gallup Poll Daily tracking data show Hillary Clinton (46%) and Barack Obama (44%) in a statistical dead heat in national Democratic voters' preferences for the nomination. This is the closest the candidates have been since the daily tracking program began in early January.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain leads Mitt Romney, 43% to 24%.

Super Tuesday...

These green states are the stakes for Hillary and Barack...who will prevail or will it be a draw?
Crowd Sizes...

Obama gets 15,000 in Ada County (Boise), Idaho. That's 7 times the number who caucused in Idaho in 2004.

Obama gets 20,000 in Minneapolis, which is way more than the 6000 one correspondent e-mailed. And Obama goes to Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis where the Rams play tonight, which seats 70,000. Will he fill that?

HRC gets 10,000+ in San Jose, per her campaign and law enforcement. (The local paper put it at 4000).

McCain gets 1,000 in Birmingham...Ouch!

Hillary Clinton at Wal-Mart: thrashing unions, jobs overseas

Hillary's six-years on the Board of Walmart...

Quote of the Day

"If you've got a Hillary and McCain race, you've got a third option: That's the pistol on the bed table." Pat Buchanan on MSNBC.

Who would have thought I could totally agree with Pat Buchanan....

FedEx vs. Government Bureaucracy -- Newt Gingrich

Newt being funny and real....

Barack Obama - Yes We Can music video

Is this the beginning of something larger than an election or is it just good marketing? We will soon see...the drama of 2008 continues....

Barack Obama, Making His Move...

Here are the latest results from the Gallop poll. Poll Daily tracking shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as close as they have been since the polling program started at the beginning of 2008. Forty-four percent of Democratic voters nationwide support Clinton, while 41% support Obama, within the poll's three-point margin of error. The data suggest that Obama has gained slightly more -- at least initially -- from John Edwards' departure from the race. In the final tracking data including Edwards in all three days' interviewing (Jan. 27-29 data), Clinton had 42%, Obama 36%, and Edwards 12%. Since then, Clinton's support has increased two points and Obama's five. Tomorrow's release will be the first pure post-Edwards three-day rolling average.

McCain Breaking Away?

View the latest poll numbers @ Gallup.

Edwards Voters on the Move...

The Edwards vote appears to be shifting to Obama. In Tennessee, Hillary is at 36% but Barack is up from 20% to 31%...see poll. More insight from Sean Braisted

This is interesting, as it appears to show that nearly all of the former Edwards support has shifted over to Barack Obama. While the anecdotal evidence I've seen seemed to bear this out, I'm quite surprised to see it occurring across the State of Tennessee. This may show that Hillary Clinton has a limited appeal in Tennessee, and with Edwards out of the picture, more people are willing to give Obama a shot at their support.

The same dynamic appears at work in New Jersey, where her 17 point lead has collapsed to a mere six in ten days.

Obama: Most Liberal Senator In 2007?

Response from Obama Spokesman Bill Burton
On 65 of the 99 votes that both Obama and Clinton voted on, they voted exactly the same way on all but two – with Obama voting to strengthen the ethics bill by creating an Office of Public Integrity and Clinton voting against it.

Only in Washington can you get falsely attacked for being like Reagan one week and labeled the most liberal the next. The tendency of Washington to apply a misleading label to every person and idea is just one of the many things we need to change about how things operate inside the beltway.

With Edwards Out...Thursday is BIG!

The CNN Democrats' debate on Thursday night is now the (latest) biggest moment in American politics this year. It will be Hillary and Barack. No funny lights telling them to shut up. No third candidate to scold them for being silly. Barack Obama needs to stay on message and not get distracted by Hillary's low blow tactics. He must rise above her on Thursday appeal to John Edwards' voters and Hispanics...plainly beat her.

Religion in America

The map highlights 8 major Christian denominations, showing where they represent a plurality (and in counties marked with a + at least 50%) of the relevant counties’ population. This shows that there are quite a few remarkably contiguous religious blocks in the US...click for details.

Get Ready America!

As we move closer to Super Tuesday, February 5th, it would also appear that we might be down to these two candidates for POTUS. Mitt Romney clearly has the money to continue to battle John McCain but does he want to spend his own money if he can't win the nomination. It is true that the Republicans are not happy with either candidate. However, when push comes to shove the Republicans will give the nod to McCain because he is their traditional candidate for 2008...a not so traditional year for the GOP. The Democrats, appear to be to old and angry to try to bridge the gap with unity and youth in Barack Obama...instead they are looking for tried and true another round of Clintonista Baby!

All of this saddens me as I watch this play out because for a moment...I thought we could elect someone who would reach across the aisle to heal the old partisan wounds of the last 16 years. All hope is not yet lost, but time I feel is running out. First, Obama needs to be able to create some Super Tuesday magic…make these 20 states close and pull off at least one or two unexpected victories. John Edwards needs to realize that Barack Obama will help fight the good fight...a deal of delegates will need to take place and a position in the Obama Administration conveyed. If these things do not come to pass it will be another 4-8 years of partisan bickering between the ideologues of both parties...same old, same old! Opportunity lost….

To read why McCain and Clinton are going to win read Coming Into Focus, Maybe

Edwards Weighing Options

Said Edwards campaign manager David Bonoir: “We’re still hoping that John is the nominee. But with a chunk of delegates, you can leverage what you’ve been fighting for and standing for. You can raise these issues to where they should be on the Democratic agenda. We’re running for those two reasons: to get the nomination and to have his voice heard on his issues.”

Filibuster Cartoons

Filibuster Cartoons

Photo of the Day

A Commentary by Dick Morris

Barack Obama used his victory in South Carolina to change the dialogue with the Clintons in the presidential race. He has taken Hillary’s and Bill’s attempt to use the race issue and replied with a clever move. He has basically called their bluff.

And Ted Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama has ratified the Illinois Senator’s strategy and candidacy.
So far, to summarize: Move One was when Obama arrived as a new candidate. Move two was Hillary’s comeback that she is more experienced. Move three was when Obama pivoted off her experience message and said he was the voice of change. Move four was the Clintons’ attempt to inject race into the election. They counted on a racial split in South Carolina to make Super Tuesday about a black/white division.

Now Obama has come back saying, in effect, “Yes, I know that you have made this election about race. But I am betting on the decency, fairness, tolerance, and objectivity of the American electorate. We all share the same hopes and dreams.”

In effect, he said I match you and raise you.

To date, Obama has avoided the race issue. But after his smashing win in South Carolina, he embraced the issue and turned it around to his advantage. He did not go down the path of Jesse Jackson and base his candidacy on a rainbow coalition. Rather, he decided to rise above the Clintons and appeal to America’s ecumenical diversity.

So now Super Tuesday is a contest between those who are mired in racial division and those who are willing to transcend it.

The massive outpouring of criticism of the Clintons for their tactics in South Carolina is withering fire which may take a serious toll among Hillary’s voters. Caroline Kennedy’s invocation of her father in endorsing Obama seems right on the money. Ted Kennedy’s support for him legitimizes white backing for the Illinois Senator and could have a big impact.

The Clintons were banking on a silent invocation of racial division stemming from a massive Obama win in South Carolina among black voters and a last place finish among whites. Their hopes were that whites would note the racial split in South Carolina and react by voting for Clinton.

But this racial divisiveness can only take place in the dark, out of sight. With the glare of Obama’s idealism shining on the dialogue, conscience comes into play and the American electorate may overcome the divisiveness of the Clintons.

Will Obama’s move trump the Clinton strategy? A lot hangs in the balance. Ultimately, the choice will say more about our soul as a nation than about the candidates in this election.

The boldness of Obama in accepting the Clintons’ injection of race as an issue and his insistence on an enlightened answer challenges us all. Even as one’s head warns that the strategy will fail, one’s heart hopes that it will succeed.

Either way, Obama has made the Super Tuesday vote more about who we are than who the candidates running for president are. Dick Morris, a Fox News Analyst and author of several books, is a former advisor to Senator Trent Lott (R-Miss) and President Bill Clinton.

I believe this campaign is going to answer a couple of questions that only Americans can answer. First, are we truly ready for change or are we to complacent to change in 2008. There is another question in this race who will decide the races outcome? Clearly, Obama has tapped into...the generational gap. This race will be decided by the Baby Boom establishment wanting to maintain their status quo versus the Generations X and Y.
I, hope it is the latter.

HALPERIN’S TAKE: Six Reasons Why the Kennedy Endorsement is a Big Deal

Mark Halperin's take follows here...

Illinois Lawmakers Defend Obama

In most legislatures, lawmakers vote either "yes" or "no" on bills, but in Illinois, senators and representatives can hit a third button for a "present" vote. Now that quirk -- not unique to Illinois -- has sparked heated exchanges among Democrats vying for president. The two main rivals of Illinois' U.S. Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination accused him during a debate Monday (Jan. 21) of ducking important votes by voting "present" about 130 times during his eight years in the Illinois Senate.

So why use the present button?

The "present" vote in Illinois is sometimes cast by state lawmakers with a conflict of interest who would rather not weigh in on an issue. Other times, members use the option to object to certain parts of a bill, even though they may agree with its overall purpose.

"The 'present' vote is used, especially by more thoughtful legislators, not as a means of avoiding taking a position on an issue, but as a means of signaling concerns about an issue," said state Rep. John Fritchey (D), an Obama supporter.

Kennedy's Endorsement Helps Obama With Latinos...

Intended or not, one of the consequences of making Barack Obama the "black candidate" is to damage his cause among Latino voters. And that's a constitutency where having Ted Kennedy's endorsement might matter. There are still lots of households with photos of JFK, RFK, and César Chavez in the living room...like this one top left of Robert Kennedy and César Chavez taken March 11, 1968.

Caroline Kennedy Endorses Obama... "A President Like My Father"

OVER the years, I’ve been deeply moved by the people who’ve told me they wished they could feel inspired and hopeful about America the way people did when my father was president. This sense is even more profound today. That is why I am supporting a presidential candidate in the Democratic primaries, Barack Obama.

My reasons are patriotic, political and personal, and the three are intertwined. All my life, people have told me that my father changed their lives, that they got involved in public service or politics because he asked them to. And the generation he inspired has passed that spirit on to its children. I meet young people who were born long after John F. Kennedy was president, yet who ask me how to live out his ideals.

Sometimes it takes a while to recognize that someone has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves, to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together we can do great things. In those rare moments, when such a person comes along, we need to put aside our plans and reach for what we know is possible.

We have that kind of opportunity with Senator Obama. It isn’t that the other candidates are not experienced or knowledgeable. But this year, that may not be enough. We need a change in the leadership of this country — just as we did in 1960.
Read on @ New York Times

And now is it time for Ted Kennedy...

Barack Obama: South Carolina Victory Speech

Obama wins 44 of 46 counties in South Carolina!

Barack Obama has crushed Hillary Clinton in the South Carolina primary, beating her by a margin of two to one, and throwing the increasingly bitter battle for the Democratic nomination into fresh doubt.

Exit polls suggested he had received four in five black votes - and a quarter of those cast by white voters. But he also beat his rival in every age or income group on Saturday.

Nationally, Obama Closing the Gap on the Dynamic Duo

With most national polls showing Hillary Clinton with a commanding 8 percentage point average ahead of Barack Obama, Rasmussen Reports has a national poll indicating Hillary and Bill's lead is down to 3 percent. Of course, this could be an anomaly in polling or it could be a reaction to the Clinton's campaigning tactics of the last four weeks that have grown more overtly nasty.

I don't know Rezko, Clinton says...

"Today" show host Matt Lauer asked presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton on Friday if she has a connection to indicted developer Tony Rezko after flashing an undated photo of the two posing with President Bill Clinton.

"You were attacking Senator Obama, in particular, his work connected to what was a so-called a slumlord in Chicago, a guy named Tony Rezko," Lauer said. "You can't see what I'm going put up on the screen ... but it is a picture of you and your husband Bill Clinton posing with that same man." Read on @ Chicago Sun-Times

The Next Attorney General...

Robert Novak is reporting that Obama and Edwards could be making a deal.... Democrats close to Sen. Barack Obama are quietly passing the word that John Edwards will be named attorney general in an Obama administration.

Installation at the Justice Department of multimillionaire trial lawyer Edwards would please not only the union leaders supporting him for president but organized labor in general. The unions relish the prospect of an unequivocal labor partisan as the nation's top legal officer.

In public debates, Obama and Edwards often seem to bond together in alliance against front-running Sen. Hillary Clinton. While running a poor third, Edwards could collect a substantial bag of delegates under the Democratic Party's proportional representation. Edwards then could try to turn his delegates over to Obama in the still unlikely event of a deadlocked Democratic National Convention. Courtesy Rasmussen Reports

Florida's Republican Debate

A recap of the debate via the politicalwire.... If you missed last night's Republican debate in Florida, CQ Politics has the "bests and mosts" of what we wrongly predicted would be a fiery event.

Chuck Todd: "Overall, the tame affair was good news for both Romney and McCain, the two frontrunners in Florida; both got to sound and look presidential. Romney, in fact, may have had his best debate performance in a long time because he wasn't attacked. In every other recent debate, Romney's struggled when under attack. But he wasn't really attacked tonight and that allowed Romney to control his image more so than in previous debates. McCain also got to look like a frontrunner, but it appears he tailored his message nationally, more so than Florida."

Rick Klein: "It was a snoozer. That's good for John McCain and Mitt Romney. I'd make Romney the winner on points -- he looked the part, as he always does, and mostly ducked the incoming fire, while talking about the economy in strong terms."

Josh Marshall: "Candidly, I was surprised that there wasn't more contentiousness in tonight's GOP debate in Florida. After all, probably at least two candidacies will end Tuesday night. So the stakes were extraordinarily high."

Andrew Sullivan: "The big take from the debate is the Republican unanimity on the Iraq war: it's been a great thing and we should keep at it. Maybe it helps with base voters (although I doubt it), but it's going to be a real issue this fall and every single one of them is now wedded to it."

Public Policy Poll: Obama Widens Lead, Edwards a Possible Second?

Most recent polls in South Carolina show a tightening Democratic primary race, but not the most recent results from Public Policy Polling. The latest survey shows Sen. Barack Obama with a commanding lead at 44% support among likely voters, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton at 24% and John Edwards at 19%.

The results do show Edwards gaining on Clinton, a result also reflected in other recent polls.