An Amazing Story...

Please take a few minutes (6:51) to watch this story.

Soldier survives RPG hit.

Air Drop Bloopers

Bless you, men of Op For, for uncovering this genius video showing what happens when air drops go wrong. a "stupid gold mine," they proclaim. And what gold it is.

And Finally...the Tax Returns

Long-awaited, they arrive — when else — at 4:00 p.m. Friday.

The Clintons' joint returns show them earning more than $109 million over a period of seven years.

The biggest source of income is Bill Clinton's speeches — source of $51 million. He made another $30 million from books; Hillary made about $10 million from her book.

Spokesman Jay Carson says, in a statement:

The Clintons have now made public thirty years of tax returns, a record matched by few people in public service. None of Hillary Clinton's presidential opponents have revealed anything close to this amount of personal financial information.

What the Clintons' tax returns show is that they paid more than $33,000,000 in federal taxes and donated more than $10,000,000 to charities over the past eight years. They paid taxes and made charitable contributions at a higher rate than taxpayers at their income level.

You can download them, and see a summary, here. They include detailed returns for 2000 through 2006, and the request for an extension for last year.

If you're poring over them, let me know what you find.

ALSO: The returns went early to Drudge — who has been extremely hard on Hillary for months — as good proof as any since the time of Machiavelli that it's better to be feared than loved.

UPDATE: The interesting part, of course, is the roughly $18 million that the summary doesn't account for -- (though it is accounted for in the returns).

Sobering Statistics...from the Other Track

(Q) The average black person in America is 447 percent more likely to be imprisoned than the average white person, and 521 percent more likely to be murdered. Blacks earn 60 cents to the dollar compared with whites who have the same education levels and marital status. The black poverty rate is nearly twice the white poverty rate. Blacks tend to die five years earlier than whites; the infant mortality rate among black babies is nearly 1 1/2 times the rate among white babies. And because of long-standing patterns of inheritance, blacks and whites begin life with substantial disparities in family wealth. To read the article...Unequal Perspectives on Racial Equality

Obama Raises More Than $40 Million in March

Sen. Barack Obama announced that he raised more than $40 million in March from more than 442,000 contributors across the country. More than 218,000 donors contributed to the campaign for the first time, and the average contribution level was $96.

Since the Clinton campaign isn't expected to come close to that figure, it's unlikely the campaign will announce anything until the mid-month filing deadline.

HRC's 20Pt. Lead in Pennsylvania...Gone

A new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania finds Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama by nine points, 50% to 41%, among likely Democratic primary voters.

Clinton held a 12 point lead two weeks ago.

Polls released yesterday from Rasmussen and SurveyUSA also found Clinton's lead narrowing in the last few weeks.

White House unveils Wall Street overhaul

(Q) The Bush administration Monday proposed the most far-ranging overhaul of the financial regulatory system since the stock market crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression.

The plan would change how the government regulates thousands of businesses from the nation’s biggest banks and investment houses down to the local insurance agent and mortgage broker.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson unveiled the 218-page plan in a speech in Treasury’s ornate Cash Room, declaring, “A strong financial system is vitally important — not for Wall Street, not for bankers, but for working Americans.”

The plan, which would require congressional approval for its biggest changes, seeks to trim a hodge-podge collection of overlapping jurisdictions that date back to the Civil War.

It would give the Federal Reserve more power to protect the stability of the entire financial system while merging day-to-day bank supervision into one agency, down from five at present.

Read More @ Plan to move more oversight to the Federal Reserve

Dems, GOP agree Obama tougher foe for McCain

Here’s something both Democrats and Republicans might agree upon:

Barack Obama could give John McCain a tougher contest in November.

That’s what the Gallup poll has found.

Gallup’s daily tracking pver the weekend portrayed Obama, senator from Illinois, with a 10-point advantage over Clinton, senator from New York, among Democrats. Today's results of the latest daily track show Obama up eight points. The Pew Research Center has found a similar margin.

But with numbers that are certain to add fuel to Obama’s pitch to those superdelegates on whom Clinton counts to turn the nomination her way, Gallup has found this as well:

In a March 24-27 survey of 1,005 people:

Democrats were asked whether Clinton or Obama has the better chance of defeating McCain in November: 59 percent said Obama does, and 30 percent said Clinton does.

Republicans were asked whether McCain has a better chance of defeating Clinton or Obama. Sixty-four percent said McCain has a better chance of beating Clinton, 22 percent said Obama.

March Madness

And then there were ones.
Four No. 1s, that is. The Jayhawks will play overall No. 1 seed North Carolina on Saturday, and UCLA and Memphis will round out the party at the Alamodome.

Obama Says He'll Throwback To Bush 41, Reagan

Barack Obama promised that his foreign policy would be a return to what he says was the realist approach practiced by George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan.

"My foreign policy is actually a return to the traditional realistic policy of George Bush's father, of John F. Kennedy, of in some ways Ronald Reagan," he said Friday. A voter at the town hall in Greenburg had asked Obama to respond to charges that his foreign policy was naïve.

"It is George Bush who has been naïve and it's people like John McCain and unfortunately some democrats that have facilitated him acting in these naïve ways that have caused us so much damage in our reputation in the world," Obama said.

Drawing on the example of the first Gulf War, Obama said that the first President Bush had "conducted a Gulf War with allies that ended up costing twenty billion dollars and left us stronger because they were realistic."

"Remember, people were saying why didn't you go into Baghdad and overthrow Saddam Hussein? The realists understood that that would be a nightmare. And it wasn't worth our national interests," Obama added.

He described this President Bush's world view on foreign policy as a big stick approach.

"Certainly George Bush's foreign policy has been dominated by the idea that because we are so militarily powerful we can dictate events around the world," he said. "If people don't like it doesn't matter because we are the biggest, toughest thing on the block. Now that is naïve."

Obama claimed that since 9-11, the way foreign policy was viewed had turned from one that understood the limits of military power and had placed a greater emphasis on diplomatic and economic strength to one that placed its sole emphasis on country's military might.

He described the conventional thinking in Washington on foreign policy as "bipartisan" and this "both ideological and highly political."

That foreign policy he argued operated from the assumption that United States could act "as a lone super power" and said that "Senator Clinton is as captive to it in some ways as John McCain and George Bush."

"I do think that Senator Clinton would understand that George Bush's polices have failed," Obama added. "But in many ways she has been captive to the same politics that lead her to vote for the war in Iraq. Since 9-11 the conventional wisdom has been you have to look tough on foreign policy by voting and acting like the republicans. And I disagree with it."

Sadr Calls for Cease-Fire?

Great news, potentially. According to the AP, "Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr said Sunday that he was pulling his fighters off the streets nationwide and called on the government to stop raids against his followers and free them from prison."

The Iraqi government quickly welcomed al-Sadr's apparent move to resolve a widening conflict with his movement, sparked Tuesday by operations against his backers in the oil-rich southern city of Basra.

Al-Sadr's nine-point statement was issued by his headquarters in the holy city of Najaf and broadcast through loudspeakers on Shiite mosques. It said the first point was: "taking gunmen off the streets in Basra and elsewhere."

He also demanded that the Iraqi government stop "haphazard raids" and release security detainees who haven't been charged, two issues cited by his movement as reasons for fighting the government.

Followers handed out sweets in Baghdad's main Mahdi Army militia stronghold of Sadr City.

"In exchange for brokering the cease-fire, al-Sadr demanded that the government give his supporters amnesty and release any of his followers that are being held," CNN says.

Sadr's forces still appear to be in control of "wide swaths" of Basra. But "the Mahdi Army has suffered major losses," notes Bill Roggio, just back from Iraq. "The Mahdi Army has not faired well over the past five days of fighting, losing an estimated two percent of its combat power, using the best case estimate for the size of the militia."

A look at the open source press reports from the US and Iraqi military and the established newspapers indicates 145 Mahdi Army fighters were killed, 81 were wounded, 98 were captured, and 30 surrendered during the past 36 hours.

Since the fighting began on Tuesday 358 Mahdi Army fighters were killed, 531 were wounded, 343 were captured, and 30 surrendered. The US and Iraqi security forces have killed 125 Mahdi Army fighters in Baghdad alone, while Iraqi security forces have killed 140 Mahdi fighters in Basra.

Courtesy Danger Room

Cash-strapped Clinton fails to pay bills

Reports her campaign has been putting off paying $8.7 million in hundreds of bills and some companies are warning others to get payment upfront when doing business with her.

If she had paid off her tab, “the cash she would have had available at the end of last month to spend on television ads and other up-front expenses would have been less than $2 million.”

Indiana Now a "Must Win" For Clinton

"Mrs. Clinton's aides said they could see no circumstance in which she would withdraw unless she lost Pennsylvania on April 22. Two senior advisers and one close ally said they would urge her to quit the race if she lost Indiana two weeks later, on May 6." New York Times

Hillary as the Black Knight...only a flesh wound?

Fighting Spreads Across Baghdad

The fighting between Iraq's Shi'ite factions appears to be metastasizing. What started in Basra and jumped to Baghdad's Sadr City has now spread across the capital, eyewitnesses tell Iraqslogger. Here's one set of reports, just from the Sha'b district.

Clashes erupted again on Thursday in the Sha'b area, including Thursday afternoon in the Sabah al-Khayat square of the northeastern district. Three cars carrying at least five Mahdi Army gunmen armed with rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and PKC launchers passed through the square in front of an Iraqi forces checkpoint, security sources said. The militiamen fired into the air as they approached. Iraqi forces returned fire and a clash ensued. Three militiamen and one policeman were killed in the firefight, along with five militiamen and one policeman injured.

At 1:00 am in Sha'b on Wednesday night, more than 70 Mahdi Army fighters attacked a police station. Two policemen were killed along with seven Mahdi Army members, and eight militiamen were injured in the fighting. Locals also report that a sound bomb had landed in Sha'b's main market Wednesday, forcing people to close their shops. Some suspect that Mahdi Army elements may have been involved in the attack as a way to force Iraqis to observe the "civil disobedience" called for by the Sadrist leadership.

On Thursday evening, a Sahwa [neighborhood watch] checkpoint was attacked in Sha'b, locals say. Two cars filled with armed men approached from different directions firing Kalashnikov rifles at the installation, then a gunman in one of the vehicles fired an RPG rocket. Sahwa forces returned fire and forced the attackers to run...

In the last two days, as Sahwa checkpoints have drawn attacks from Mahdi Army militiamen, locals say that several of the installations have been merged together to make them more defensible. Iraqi authorities also brought reinforcements from other Sahwa councils into Sha'b on Thursday. Locals say that Mahdi Army militiamen have targeted the residences of some Sahwa members in the area.

Read more at Danger Room.

Obama on Indiana

The Start of a Drum Beat?

Leahy Urges Clinton to Quit Race

Is this the start of a drum beat?
Following yesterday's declaration by Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) that Sen. Barack Obama has already won the Democratic presidential race, Vermont Public Radio reports that Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) is calling on Sen. Hillary Clinton to drop out.
Said Leahy:

"There is no way that Senator Clinton is going to win enough delegates to get the nomination. She ought to withdraw and she ought to be backing Senator Obama. Now, obviously that's a decision that only she can make frankly I feel that she would have a tremendous career in the Senate."

Courtesy Political Wire.

Growth Nearly Halted By End of 2007

New numbers released by the government Thursday highlighted the continued weak performance of the national economy, with the Commerce Department reporting an anemic 0.6 percent increase in the gross domestic product in the final three months of 2007.

The GDP, which measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States, was expected to perform even worse in the first three months of 2008, but final numbers will not be available on that until late April.

One positive number to come out Thursday could be tied to the continued weak value of the American dollar compared with other currencies. Sales of U.S. goods and services to other countries grew at a 6.5 percent pace. That was better than the 4.8 percent growth rate previously estimated.

Thursday's report underscored the damage to the economy from the collapse in the housing market, which has crippled housing prices, forced many homeowners into foreclosure and weakened consumer confidence in their finances.

Reaction from the campaign trail...

Republican standard bearer Sen. John McCain, who has said the government should only intervene to address systemic problems in the economy, dismissed both Democratic senators addresses in a statement Thursday.

"There is a tendency for liberals to seek big government programs that sock it to American taxpayers while failing to solve the very real problems we face," McCain said.

Obama countered that McCain's plan to assist the economy "amounts to little more than watching this crisis happen."

Climate Change...

The Wilkins ice shelf is collapsing:

A chunk of Antarctic ice about seven times the size of Manhattan suddenly collapsed, putting an even greater portion of glacial ice at risk, scientists said Tuesday.

....British Antarctic Survey scientist David Vaughan attributed the melting to rising sea temperature due to global warming.

....Vaughan had predicted the Wilkins shelf would collapse about 15 years from now.

All the usual caveats apply. However, this is one more data point suggesting that global warming may be happening faster than our current models predict, not slower.
Courtesy Los Angeles Times

N.C., Line in the Sand?

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s dwindling chances to be president may hinge on what happens in North Carolina.

Jerry Meek, the chairman of the N.C. Democratic Party, laid out Clinton’s problem in the national delegate totals.

“I think it’s very, very unlikely that if Obama won both the popular vote and the pledged-vote count, that the nomination would go to Clinton,” said Meek, who has not endorsed either candidate. “The public outcry as a result of that would be so intense that it would not happen.”

A poll released yesterday by a Democratic polling firm in North Carolina showed Obama leading Clinton by 21 points in the state. A week ago, another poll by the firm, Public Policy Polling, showed Obama with a lead of just 1 point.

Tom Jensen, an analyst with Public Policy Polling, attributed Obama’s large jump in the poll to a change in the sample of voters that was polled and to the media attention he received last week from his visit to the state.

If Obama gets a resounding win in North Carolina, it could help clinch the nomination for him, said Pearce, the Democratic consultant.

“Unless either she or he wins a state they should not win, I think this thing is probably over after North Carolina,” Pearce said.

Even former president Bill Clinton, campaigning for his wife on Friday, alluded to North Carolina’s importance, saying, “This whole thing could come down to what you all decide to do in North Carolina.”

Comic Relief

Erin Jackson is a DC-based comedian doing big things. She's part of the Black Comedy Project family and will be coming soon to Comedy Central's Live at Gotham series.

McCain: Let's Add $4 Trillion More To The Debt

According to his website, McCain wants to do the following:

(a) Repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax.
(b) "John McCain will fight the Democrats' crippling plans for a tax increase in 2011." That "tax increase" is what is more commonly known as "letting the Bush tax cuts expire on schedule."
(c) "Cut The Corporate Tax Rate From 35 To 25 Percent."
(d) "Allow First-Year Deduction, Or “Expensing”, Of Equipment And Technology Investments." From the Gordon/Kvaal report:

"Under current law, corporations must generally deduct the cost of an investment over that investment’s useful lifetime, a tax and accounting practice known as depreciation. McCain’s proposal will allow corporations to depreciate the entire cost of investments in the first year of the purchase, a practice known as expensing. This would create extra incentives for business investment by letting corporations claim these tax breaks immediately."

There are a few other tax proposals, none of which would do anything to offset the cost of these.

The Gordon/Kvaal report estimates the cost of these changes at $2.17 trillion dollars over ten years. They think their estimates are conservative: for instance, they do not count increased spending on debt service.

The Wall Street Journal, everyone's favorite bastion of radical leftism, writes: "In all, his tax-cutting proposals could cost about $400 billion a year, according to estimates of the impact of different tax cuts by CBO and the McCain campaign."

That would make the cost over ten years $4 trillion.
Read more of Andrew Olmsted

Signs your campaign is in trouble...

Apparently retailers haven't heard the electoral votes theory.

The Impact of Obama's Speech

The latest CBS News poll on the Wright speech suggests that Obama scored well. 71 percent thought he did a good job explaining his relationship with Wright, with 24 percent saying a poor job. 63 percent mostly agreed with his views on race. The poll shows no real shift from the speech in voters' intent to vote for him or not vote for him.

Which Evil Anti-American Racist Demagogue Said This?

"God didn't call America to engage in a senseless, unjust war. . . . And we are criminals in that war. We've committed more war crimes almost than any nation in the world, and I'm going to continue to say it. And we won't stop it because of our pride and our arrogance as a nation. But God has a way of even putting nations in their place...[God will say:] And if you don't stop your reckless course, I'll rise up and break the backbone of your power."

Answer Click Here
To read more check out E. J. Dionne Jr.

State Dept. Employees Targets Obama

The State Department says it is trying to determine whether three contract workers had a political motive for looking at Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's passport file. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said that for now it appears that nothing other than "imprudent curiosity" was involved in three separate breaches of the Illinois senator's personal information, "but we are taking steps to reassure ourselves that that is, in fact, the case."

Bill Burton, a spokesman for Obama's presidential campaign, called for a complete investigation. "This is an outrageous breach of security and privacy, even from an administration that has shown little regard for either over the last eight years," Burton said. "Our government's duty is to protect the private information of the American people, not use it for political purposes."

"This is a serious matter that merits a complete investigation, and we demand to know who looked at Senator Obama's passport file, for what purpose and why it took so long for them to reveal this security breach," he said.

The breaches occurred on Jan. 9, Feb. 21 and March 14 and were detected by internal State Department computer checks, McCormack said. The department's top management officer, Undersecretary Patrick Kennedy, said certain records, including those of high-profile people, are "flagged" with a computer tag that tips off supervisors when someone tries to view the records without a proper reason.

In answer to a question, Kennedy said the department doesn't look into political affiliation in doing background checks on passport workers. "Now that this has arisen, this becomes a germane question, and that will be something for the appropriate investigation to look into," he said.

The disclosure of inappropriate passport inquiries recalled an incident in 1992, when a Republican political appointee at the State Department was demoted over a search of presidential candidate Bill Clinton's passport records. At the time he was challenging President George H.W. Bush.

The searches may violate the federal Privacy Act, and Kennedy said he is consulting State Department lawyers. The State Department inspector general's power is limited because two of the employees are no longer working for the department. McCormack said it was premature to consider whether the FBI or Justice Department should be involved.

Today, Sec. of State Rice says she called Obama to apologize for passport file breach.

Doug Hattaway, a spokesman for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the former first lady who is challenging Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination, said of the current breach: "It's outrageous and the Bush administration has to get to the bottom of it."

New Mexico's Richardson endorses Obama

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, the nation's only Hispanic governor, is endorsing Sen. Barack Obama for president, calling him a "once-in-a- lifetime leader" who can unite the nation and restore America's international leadership.

Richardson, who dropped out of the Democratic race in January, is to appear with Obama on Friday at a campaign event in Portland, Ore., The Associated Press has learned.

The governor's endorsement comes as Obama leads among delegates selected at primaries and caucuses but with national public opinion polling showing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton pulling ahead of him amid controversy over statements by his former pastor.

McCain Downplays Mideast Gaffe

A Southern Bystander in Cobb County Georgia

A man waiting for a car repair sees the Obama speech on TV. People come and go and watch. Not everyone in this country is like the National Review crowd:

I haven't had that many "standing around with strangers watching events unfold" moments in my life. In roughly chronological order, the Challenger explosion, the OJ verdict, 9/11, the Red Sox winning the World Series. Maybe one or two others scattered through my 33 years. But not many. Most events are, I suppose, not big enough, not loud enough, not important enough to make people stop and just watch. Today was another one of those days.

I've watched the speech again since this morning, and it didn't disappoint, but just at that moment I stopped watching it ... and started watching the people around me. The young black man. The elderly white couple. The two white women, one college-aged, one in her late-20s. One middle-aged white woman. Two white men, one college-aged, one in his late-30s. One Asian couple. All of them were watching the speech. Rapt. Nodding.

Gradually, the twentysomething white woman went back to her laptop, but kept smiling when Obama would say something important. The elderly white couple whispered in their Southern accented way: "He's really good... He's saying good things... He's a good young man..." The young black man chuckled when Obama said that Sunday morning was the most segregated hour in America, but was otherwise simply watching. And at one point, the middle-aged white woman asked one of the dealership folks, in another thick, thick Southern accent if she wouldn't mind turning up the volume, because she really wanted to hear this speech.

She, this white Southern woman from the suburbs, wanted to hear this speech, delivered by a Black man with a funny name running for President. And she was nodding.

But she wasn't the only one.

A Change of Seasons

Obama's Speech on Race

Sen. Barack Obama's speech on race this morning showed off exactly why he's become the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination. He's absolutely willing to challenge the conventional way of how politicians approach controversy. In my opinion, it was the best speech so far in this campaign.

Andrew Sullivan: "I have never felt more convinced that this man's candidacy - not this man, his candidacy - and what he can bring us to achieve - is an historic opportunity. This was a testing; and he did not merely pass it by uttering safe bromides. He addressed the intimate, painful love he has for an imperfect and sometimes embittered man. And how that love enables him to see that man's faults and pain as well as his promise. This is what my faith is about. It is what the Gospels are about. This is a candidate who does not merely speak as a Christian. He acts like a Christian."

Charles Murray: "Has any other major American politician ever made a speech on race that comes even close to this one? As far as I'm concerned, it is just plain flat out brilliant -- rhetorically, but also in capturing a lot of nuance about race in America. It is so far above the standard we're used to from our pols."

Ben Smith: "A smart colleague notes that this speech is the polar opposite of this year's other big speech on faith, in which Mitt Romney went to Texas to talk about Mormonism, but made just one reference to his Mormon faith. Obama mentions Wright by name 14 times."

First Read: "His tone throughout was quiet and thoughtful. The same speech could have been delivered in a fiery tone. But Obama chose one that was quiet and thoughtful. It did little to lessen the impact and may have added to the weight of his words."

Marc Ambinder: "How it plays will determine how it plays. If the media focuses more on the Wright defense-by-renouncements and then juxtaposes them with clips of Wright's comments, then I think the trouble remains. The seeds of doubt about who this guy really is may be nourished. I know that Obama believes that a discussion about race plays to his benefit, no matter what people think about white working class voters and their latent feelings. Perhaps this is the beginning of his opportunity to lift the veil and get everyone -- not just himself and the media -- to talk openly."
Courrtesy: Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

Florida: No Revote

Letter from state party chair says: “We researched every potential alternative process – from caucuses to county conventions to mail-in elections – but no plan could come anywhere close to being viable in Florida.” Read letter here. Courtesy Mark Halperin

Clearance from the Trib

Chicago Tribune indicates that it's satisfied with Obama's account of Rezko.

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama waited 16 months to attempt the exorcism. But when he finally sat down with the Tribune editorial board Friday, Obama offered a lengthy and, to us, plausible explanation for the presence of now-indicted businessman Tony Rezko in his personal and political lives.

The most remarkable facet of Obama's 92-minute discussion was that, at the outset, he pledged to answer every question the three dozen Tribune journalists crammed into the room would put to him. And he did.

My take on this one is that while it's not going to go away, and while both Obama's judgment and his slow disclosure are legitimate issues, the missing piece is an indication that Obama reciprocated with valuable favors, something that hasn't been shown.

Senator Obama on Olbermann

Obama Denounces Controversial Remarks

7 Days and Counting

Sen. Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally, 50% to 44%, according to the latest Gallup tracking poll.

Obama has led in this poll for seven consecutive days.

Quote of the Day

"She did not sit in on national security meetings. She did not have a security clearance. She did not attend meetings in the situation room. She conducted no negotiations. She did not manage any part of the national security bureaucracy."

-- Former Clinton White House aide Greg Craig, in an interview with the National Journal, adding that Sen Hillary Clinton has "in serious ways overstated, if not grossly exaggerated, the nature of her experience."

What "A Fighter" Means...

A reader of Andrew Sullivan writes about Hillary Clinton's strategies and her possible presidency.

One thing that both Hillary Clinton and her supporters say is indisputably true: she is a fighter. Clinton and her supporters believe that she will fight her opponents to accomplish her goals. But what does that mean?

Right now, her opponent is a man with whom she agrees on nearly every issue; a man she says she respects and is honored to campaign against. Despite the undisputed stature and dignity of her opponent, Clinton "fights" him with the most divisive and negative methods she can find. Instead of simply convincing the American people that she is the better candidate, she feels compelled to throw every possible negative charge against him and see what sticks.

Now, imagine this "fighter" in the White House, attempting to actually achieve the goals she says she'll fight for: universal health care, bringing troops home from Iraq, etc. If these are the methods she uses to "fight" an honorable opponent with whom she generally agrees, can you imagine what she'll do as president to opponents with whom she disagrees?

If this is the level of negativity we see when she fights a supporter of universal health care who wants us out of Iraq, just try to envision what she'll throw at anyone from any party who actually disagrees with her goal, or her method of accomplishing her goal. If this is how she treats someone with whom she is "honored" to campaign, imagine how she'll behave with someone she thinks is wrong, or evil?

The divisive politics would continue and Main Street Americans would have a government that does not function.

Could She Ever Win The Popular Vote?

The logic behind this seems inescapable to me:

For the record, Senator Obama came out of the Mississippi primary with an advantage of 99,000 votes over Senator Clinton, more than I had predicted based on his edge in Alabama. That puts his margin in the nationwide popular vote -- by a measure that includes Florida but not Michigan -- at more than 500,000.

As I noted yesterday, it will take a colossal victory, almost 60%, for Clinton to get a 200,000 vote edge out of Pennsylvania. And if she does that, there is no plausible scheme under which she could pick up the remaining 300,000 votes to gain even the dubious moral claim of an edge in the popular vote.

Courtesy The American Prospect

The racial stuff is a sign of desperation. The Clintons have to find a way to destroy Obama in the next month or so or his claim on the nomination will be democratically irresistible. Obama needs to chill and fight fairly on. It's his to lose - unless they get into his head, and everyone else's, with the kind of emotional hoopla that Ferraro represents. Eyes on the prize...

Olbermann on Ferraro Uproar

New Poll in Pennsylvania

While a new poll among Pennsylvania voters shows Clinton leading by 18 points, both Obama and her lose to McCain in head-to-head match ups. According to the Strategic Vision (R) poll, which will be released tomorrow, Obama fares better in a contest with McCain.

In the Democratic contest in the Keystone State, Clinton leads Obama outright in Pennsylvania, 56%-38%.

But in hypothetical match ups for the general election...see below...Maybe the party elders and media need to be watching these numbers over the next six weeks as we head into a date with Pennsylvania voters.

If the election for President were held today and the choices were John McCain, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat for whom would you vote?

John McCain 48%
Hillary Clinton 42%
Undecided 10%

If the election for President were held today and the choices were John McCain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat for whom would you vote?

John McCain 47%
Barack Obama 44%
Undecided 9%

John McCain's Iraq Problem...

Grim new evidence of our miscalculation:

An exhaustive review of more than 600,000 Iraqi documents that were captured after the 2003 U.S. invasion has found no evidence that Saddam Hussein's regime had any operational links with Osama bin Laden's al Qaida terrorist network.

The Pentagon-sponsored study, scheduled for release later this week, did confirm that Saddam's regime provided some support to other terrorist groups, particularly in the Middle East, U.S. officials told McClatchy. However, his security services were directed primarily against Iraqi exiles, Shiite Muslims, Kurds and others he considered enemies of his regime.

McCain has two problems if he wants to pursue President Bush's policy in Iraq. How is he going to fund the occupation for another 10, 25, 50 years? Second, how is McCain going to bring in more troops into the armed services because as the Pentagon states we cannot maintain the armed services with our current numbers and stay in Iraq...these are bad times for the United States in trying to retain soldiers and recruit them. Will John McCain propose raising taxes and implemeting the draft once in office? Serious questions need "straight talk" from both sides of the political aisle.

The Streets of Los Angeles

Jamiel Shaw was just three doors from his house on March 2. His father told the 17-year-old high school football star to be home before dark. That is exactly what he was trying to do when, just before dusk, gunshots rang out.

Gang members pulled up in a car and asked Shaw if he was in a gang. Shaw didn't have time to tell them "no." He was mowed down before he could answer, police say.

His dad heard the shots from inside his house and immediately called his son's cell phone to warn him to stay away. But within seconds, the father realized what had happened.

"I just ran down there," Jamiel Shaw Sr. told CNN.

His son was wearing the same shirt his dad had pressed for him that morning. "He was laying on the ground and his face was so peaceful. I knew he was dead."

"For three hours, I was just completely blacked out walking."

More than 7,500 miles away, Army Sgt. Anita Shaw was serving her second tour in Iraq. Her commanding officer called her into his office and told her to sit down next to the chaplain. He then informed her that her son had been killed on the streets of Los Angeles.

"I freaked out," she said. "I wanted to run out of the room. I was screaming and kicking. I was shouting, 'No.'"

Anita Shaw is now back in Los Angeles to bury her son. Hundreds of family members and friends are expected to attend the funeral Tuesday for Shaw, a standout running back and sprinter at Los Angeles High School who had good grades and stayed out of trouble despite his rough neighborhood. Among the schools recruiting him was Stanford University.

"He was a Christian and I thank God for that because I know he's in a better place," his mom said, trembling as she sobbed. "He'd just try all the time to do the right thing. He was so good."

Shaw is one of several innocent victims in a horrifying three-week spate of gang-related shootings around Los Angeles. A man was gunned down as he held a 2-year-old baby in his arms. A 13-year-old boy was shot to death last week as he went to pick lemons from a tree. In another incident, a 6-year-old boy was critically wounded when he was shot in the head while riding in the car with his family; two gang members have been arrested in connection with that shooting, according to police.

"I think what is particularly unnerving for all of us is just the random nature of these shootings," Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said last week.

Mississippi takes center stage

Today, Mississippi Democrats "are deciding the last in a series of presidential contests between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton before the two rivals settle in for a six-week battle to win Pennsylvania" the Bilxoi Sun Herald reports.

Turnout is expected to set a record, according to the Clarion Ledger.

"Mississippi is one of those rare Southern states that might be in play in the general election if Obama becomes the nominee. One Dem statistician tells First Read that there are three red states that could swing if African-American turnout was ever maximized (both in registration and in actual turnout): Georgia, Louisiana and, yes, Mississippi. So don't assume this is just one of those untouchable red states for the Dems when watching returns roll in tonight."

Thirty-three delegates are at stake. Polls closed at 7 p.m.

Obama Counters Clinton Veep Talk

Mehlman, Rove boost McCain campaign

John McCain is getting much more than President Bush's endorsement and fundraising help for his campaign. He’s getting Bush's staff. Courtesy Politico

It’s no secret that Steve Schmidt, Bush’s attack dog in the 2004 election, and Mark McKinnon, the president’s media strategist, are performing similar functions for McCain now.

But other big-name Bushies are lining up to boost McCain, too.

Ken Mehlman, who ran Bush’s 2004 campaign, is now serving as an unpaid, outside adviser to the Arizona Republican. Karl Rove, the president’s top political hand since his Texas days, recently gave money to McCain and soon after had a private conversation with the senator. A top McCain adviser said both Mehlman and Rove are now informally advising the campaign. Rove refused to detail his conversation with McCain.

Rove explained that he and McCain “got to know each other during the 2004 campaign.”

Where did the Maverick go I fear this may not help McCain with Independents this fall. This only enhances the slogan, McBush

Obama, Back In The Saddle in Wyoming

“Wyomingites are pretty independent,” Mrs. Dunn said. “We like somebody who speaks like him.”

Obama led rival Sen. Hillary Clinton at 58 percent to 41 percent, with 91 percent of precincts reporting.

The caucus thrust the state, which has only 12 delegates, into the spotlight because the close race between Obama and Clinton means that every delegate counts.

Although Wyoming typically is not a stop for Democrats looking for delegates to clinch the party's presidential nomination, its numbers could make a difference this year because of the delegate deadlock.

With slightly more than 600 delegates left at stake, every remaining contest is crucial to both candidates.

What Foreign Policy Experience?

The Chicago Tribune does us all a service by examining what exactly is Senator Clinton's experience. Read the whole thing, but the Macedonia and Northern Ireland claims are the most revealing:

Pressed in a CNN interview this week for specific examples of foreign policy experience that has prepared her for an international crisis, Clinton claimed that she "helped to bring peace" to Northern Ireland and negotiated with Macedonia to open up its border to refugees from Kosovo.

Both claims are ludicrously untrue. All she did in Northern Ireland was have tea with some local peace activist women. Laura Bush could argue, by that token, that she has ended AIDS in Africa. But here's the beaut:

The Macedonian government opened its border to refugees the day before Clinton arrived to meet with government leaders.

Clinton has next to no foreign policy experience. And no executive experience. She has less legislative experience than Obama. And she has not just exaggerated, but flat-out lied, about her non-achievements. I'm glad the Tribune has done this. Can the rest of media follow up? Courtesy Andrew Sullivan

The Daily Show

Stephen Colbert...

Photo of the Day

Key West, Florida...waiting for warm weather in Oregon.

Florida, Michigan 'do-over' primaries too costly

Florida and Michigan Democratic lawmakers met last night, but the brainstorming session didn't net any final solution to the mess over their states' delegates being excluded from the presidential nominating convention.

David Goldenberg, chief of staff to Rep. Alcee Hastings of Miramar, said the lawmakers can toss around ideas, but candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama must agree to any plan. The national parties penalized the states all their delegates because their primaries were held too early in the year.

And Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean was showing no signs of compromising about counting the results of those early primaries when he spoke on the morning news shows today.

Although talk has increased in Florida about holding a "do over" vote of some sort, Dean said he's not interested in paying for it.

"Of course not. We can't afford to do that. That's not our problem. You know, we need our money to win the presidential race," Dean said on the CBS Early Show.

Florida lawmakers have been resistant to holding another contest because they want the vote from Jan. 29 to count, which Dean has staunchly opposed.

"The do-over is the least favorable option, the most costly and probably the most difficult politically and administratively," Goldenberg said. Courtesy Swamp Politics

McCain Behind Democrats

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows both Democratic presidential candidates ahead of Sen. John McCain in general election match ups.

Sen. Barack Obama leads McCain, 52% to 40%, while Sen. Hillary Clinton is ahead, 50% to 44%.

Key finding: "Another obstacle for McCain may be his age. More than a quarter of those polled said they are less inclined to support McCain because he would be the oldest person ever to become president. The percentage discouraged by McCain's age is more than double that of people who would be less enthusiastic about supporting Obama because he is African American or Clinton because she is a woman."

Hillary’s Math Problem

Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.

Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count.

I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries.

So here we go: Let's assume Hillary beats expectations and wins Ohio tonight 55-45, Rhode Island 55-45, Texas, 53-47 and (this is highly improbable), ties in Vermont, 50-50.

Then it's on to Wyoming on Saturday, where, let's say, the momentum of today helps her win 53-47. Next Tuesday in Mississippi—where African-Americans play a big role in the Democratic primary—she shocks the political world by winning 52-48.

Then on April 22, the big one, Pennsylvania—and it's a Hillary blowout, 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates. She wins both of Guam's two delegates on May 30, and Indiana's proximity to Illinois does Obama no good on May 6, with the Hoosiers going for Hillary 55-45. The same day brings another huge upset in a heavily African-American state: enough North Carolina blacks desert Obama to give the state to Hillary 52-48, netting her five more delegates.

Suppose May 13 in West Virginia is no kinder to Obama, and he loses by double digits, netting Clinton two delegates. The identical 55-45 result on May 20 in Kentucky nets her five more. The same day brings Oregon, a classic Obama state. Oops! He loses there 52-48. Hillary wins by 10 in Montana and South Dakota on June 3, and primary season ends on June 7 in Puerto Rico with another big Viva Clinton! Hillary pulls off a 60-40 landslide, giving her another 11 delegates. She has enjoyed a string of 16 victories in a row over three months. Read on @ Newsweek

Roethlisberger agrees to $102 million deal

Ben Roethlisberger became not only the highest-paid Steelers player ever, he's now among the highest-paid players in the NFL, and arguments can be made that he's No. 1.

Roethlisberger today signed a contract that will pay him $102 million over eight seasons. It includes so-called "guaranteed money" of slightly more than $36 million and a $25 million signing bonus.

"This is about being a Pittsburgh Steeler for as long as I can be,'' Roethlisberger said. "I don't want to go anywhere.''

Said Dan Rooney, the Steelers chairman, "He's a Steeler, he'll always be a Steeler.''

Obama-Bloomberg ticket...just a tease?

In an interview on “Inside City Hall,” Deputy Mayor Kevin Sheekey promoted the idea of an Obama-Bloomberg presidential ticket – and revealed that Mayor Michael Bloomberg spoke yesterday with the Democratic presidential frontrunner.

"Certainly you could joke that Obama's call was a fundraising call yesterday," Sheekey told political anchor Dominic Carter. “The man [Bloomberg] has the ability to finance a campaign. I don't think that’s why you choose a vice president. I do think that people are going to be very concerned about the influence of special-interest money in this campaign going forward,” Sheekey said.

“I think it was a reasonably short call, you know, I was briefed. I was told they had a nice call and I spoke to the mayor after they had breakfast a few months ago. Back to Obama -- you were the one asking about an Obama ticket. I think the mayor is the ultimate swing voter. He is someone who the country is looking at to find out where they will go. He is one of the true independents in the country,” said Sheekey, who pointedly did not rule out the mayor as Obama’s running mate. Courtesy Mark Halperin

Priorities - John McCain VoteVets.org Ad

Obama Gives Some News To John McCain

20th Democratic Presidential Debate

Chuck Todd: "Overall, it's hard to see this debate as changing the trajectory of this race; Obama was a bit more defensive tonight than last week and had more stumbles tonight than in more recent encounters... It's hard to pick a winner; Clinton was more prepared but Obama survived and that's probably the name of the game for him at this late date in the campaign."

Rick Klein: "That was an exhausting 90 minutes -- just to watch. Probably as close to a draw as you can imagine -- really, two very talented politicians and debaters fighting it out extremely closely."

Marc Ambinder: "Bottom line: did this, the 20th debate, change much? Probably not."

Mark Halperin: Obama B+, Clinton B-

RNC Secretly Polls on Racism, Sexism

The Republican National Committee "has commissioned polling and focus groups to determine the boundaries of attacking a minority or female candidate," according to The Politico. "The secretive effort underscores the enormous risk senior GOP operatives see for a party often criticized for its insensitivity to minorities in campaigns dating back to the 1960s."

"The RNC project is viewed as so sensitive that those involved in the work were reluctant to discuss the findings in detail. But one Republican strategist, who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, said the research shows the daunting and delicate task ahead."

Mike Huckabee on Weekend Update

What That McCain Article Didn’t Say

“If the point of the story was to allege that McCain had an affair with a lobbyist, we’d have owed readers more compelling evidence than the conviction of senior staff members,” he replied. “But that was not the point of the story. The point of the story was that he behaved in such a way that his close aides felt the relationship constituted reckless behavior and feared it would ruin his career.”

I think that ignores the scarlet elephant in the room. A newspaper cannot begin a story about the all-but-certain Republican presidential nominee with the suggestion of an extramarital affair with an attractive lobbyist 31 years his junior and expect readers to focus on anything other than what most of them did. And if a newspaper is going to suggest an improper sexual affair, whether editors think that is the central point or not, it owes readers more proof than The Times was able to provide.

The stakes are just too big. As the flamboyant Edwin Edwards of Louisiana once said, “The only way I can lose this election is if I’m caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy.”

The pity of it is that, without the sex, The Times was on to a good story. McCain, who was reprimanded by the Senate Ethics Committee in 1991 for exercising “poor judgment” by intervening with federal regulators on behalf of a corrupt savings and loan executive, recast himself as a crusader against special interests and the corrupting influence of money in politics. Yet he has continued to maintain complex relationships with lobbyists like Iseman, at whose request he wrote to the Federal Communications Commission to urge a speed-up on a decision affecting one of her clients.

Much of that story has been reported over the years, but it was still worth pulling together to help voters in 2008 better understand the John McCain who might be their next president. Read Clark Hoyt's entire commentary @ New York Times

Debate Reaction

Some reactions from last night's debate in Texas between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama:

Chuck Todd: "Clinton ended the debate on a VERY conciliatory note and for the first time sounded like a candidate who realized she might not win. It must be an odd position for her but the confidence she exuded for just about the entire debate disappeared there at the end. I wonder if showing some vulnerability might actually help her with some undecided voters."

Marc Ambinder: "This was the night where we all learned that Hillary Clinton understands the moment in history we are in, and that she is smart enough and gracious enough to realize that her party is more important than personal vanity, that there are things she just cannot say about Obama because it would hurt him in the fall, and that more likely than not, she will not win the nomination."

Rick Klein: "If all you're doing as a voter is making a judgment based on this debate, it's easy to come away supporting Clinton. But that's not how the election works -- the fact is Sen. Clinton was looking for ways to recast the debate tonight, and we didn't get that. A few new lines on a few old arguments do not result in any changed dynamics, not by my judgment. If you're an Obama fan, you're generally pleased with the night."

Walter Shapiro: "The very tentative guess is that Hillary Clinton still managed to inspire voters in Texas and Ohio to look again, perhaps for the last time, at the candidate whom they are poised to jettison in favor of Barack Obama."

Obama Closing Gap in Texas, Ohio

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll takes a look at the two big March 4 primaries and finds Sen. Barack Obama within striking distance of Sen. Hillary Clinton in each.

Texas: Clinton 48%, Obama 47%
Ohio: Clinton 50%, Obama 43%

Key finding: "A quarter in Texas, and a third in Ohio, say they could change their minds or are undecided."

Complete survey results are available.

Barack Obama: Target engaged, two-front assaults

Sen. Barack Obama, fresh from 10 consecutive state election and caucus victories in his bid for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination, has formally registered as Target No. 1.

Both his rival for the party’s nomination, Sen. Hillary Clinton, and the likely Republican candidate, Sen. John McCain, have taken square aim at the junior senator from Illinois as two of the biggest primaries of the season arrive – the votes in Ohio and Texas on March 4.

The attention of both Clinton and McCain demonstrates just how Obama has come from the town square in Springfield a little over one year ago when he amassed the first of many large crowds to respond to his calls of hope and change.

And the substantive material of the charges which both are leveling at Obama demonstrate just how strong he may be: They both are challenging his experience.

But it is, indeed, the experience of both Clinton and McCain which is causing many voters concern: Voters in both parties are looking at Clinton’s experience as a polarizing figure in American politics, and they are weighing that idea of Clinton II; conservative Republicans are looking at McCain’s experience in immigration reform, campaign finance reform and tax-cutting, and moderate to liberal Republicans are looking at his experience of support for the war and interrogation policies of an administration he long criticized for its conduct of both.

And, ultimately, voters in both parties are looking at Obama – slightly ahead in the Democratic delegate count, far ahead on the inspiration meter, and posing one ripe target for the Texas and Ohio elections which already are underway today with early voting in Texas. Read more of Mark Silva @ The Swamp

Obama Goes 10-0

Obama goes 10-0: The best way to end two days of tough press coverage? You go out and win a contested state -- and a general election battleground, to boot -- by 17 points. That’s exactly what Obama did in Wisconsin yesterday, and when you add his victory late last night in Hawaii, he’s now an eye-popping 10-0 since February 5. What’s more, every single win after Super Tuesday has been in the double digits, the narrowest margin being last night’s 17-point win. Yes, Obama outspent Clinton in Wisconsin. Yes, he campaigned in the state longer than she did. And, yes, Madison is full of potential Obama base supporters: college students and highly educated adults. But demographically, Wisconsin was a perfect place for Clinton to stop Obama’s momentum. And she tried with negative TV ads (hitting Obama on health care, Social Security, and not participating in debates), mailings (slamming him on health care and his “present” votes), and a well-timed oppo hit (on Obama lifting lines from Deval Patrick’s speeches). And still, per the exit polls, Obama won among those who decided on Election Day (though it was closer), as well as in the last three days. There's an argument that some in the Clinton campaign can make that the negative stuff was just starting to work. Then again, it was a 17-point win...
Courtesy First Read