The Real Magic Number is 1,627?

In 2008, 3,253 delegates will be chosen through caucuses and primaries to represent Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton at the Democratic National Convention.

Once one of the candidates has won a majority of those democratically selected delegates (also known as pledged delegates), the only way his or her opponent could win the nomination is with the support of the 796 unelected, unaccountable superdelegates -- in the process overturning the judgment of the voters.

50%+1 of 3,253 is 1,627. That's the real magic number.

Once a candidate has 1,627 pledged delegates, he or she will win the nomination -- unless the superdelegates step in and reverse the decision of the voters.

At present, CNN estimates 986 pledged delegates for Obama and 924 for Clinton. (John Edwards also has 26.)

That means there are still 1,317 pledged delegates left to be awarded.

Obama must win at least 48.7% of them to hit his magic number.

Clinton must win 53.4% of the remaining delegates to her magic number. In other words, even if Clinton won 53% of the remaining delegates, she would still fall short of a democratically elected majority.

(The numbers aren't perfect mirrors of each other because John Edwards won 26 delegates.)

Later in the day, I'll post some graphs to make this easier to visualize, and tonight voters will select another 176 delegate. After those delegates are chosen, a full two-thirds of all delegates will have been picked.

Obama won the first contest in Iowa and as the calendar winds down, he has led wire-to-wire: from start to finish.

Will he be able to sustain the lead? No one can say for sure.

But one thing is clear right now: Barack Obama is winning.

OBAMA, THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE? YES HE CAN!

I believe that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary and win the Democratic nomination. I think that this weekend’s victories in states as diverse as Washington State, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Maine illustrates his national appeal and demonstrates Hillary’s inability to win in states without large immigrant and Latino populations.

Hillary’s results on Super Tuesday, which amounted to a draw with Obama, will be her high water mark and will represent the closest she will ever come to the party nomination.


Right now, CBS has Obama ahead in elected delegates with 1134, while Hillary has only 1131.By the time Virginia, Maryland, DC, Wisconsin, and Hawaii vote during the next week, Obama will have a lead over Clinton of about 100 delegates, even counting the super delegates who have thus far committed themselves.

March 4th will, at worst, be a wash for Obama with his probably wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont offsetting his probable defeat in Texas. (Although in Texas’ open primary, Republicans and Independents may flock to the Dem primary to beat Hillary).

And then come a list of states almost all of which should go for Obama, including likely victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana. By the convention, he will have more than enough delegates to overcome the expected margins Hillary may rack up among super delegates.

And don’t bet on all the super delegates staying hitched to Hillary. These folks are politicians, half of them public office holders who are really good at reading the handwriting on the wall and really bad at gratitude for past favors.

Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. But, given the consistently amazing performance of Obama, his superior organizational and fund-raising skills, his inspiration of young people, and the flat and completely uninspiring performance by Hillary, it looks to me like it will be Obama as the Democratic nominee.

Courtesy Dick Morris
Probably the most prominent American political consultant, Dick Morris is almost universally credited with piloting Bill Clinton to a stunning comeback re-election victory in 1996 after the president lost Congress to the Republicans two years before. Morris has become a familiar figure as a commentator for the Fox News Channel. He makes over four hundred appearances each year and is well known for hard-hitting, nonpartisan, objective commentary about the U.S. political scene. He writes a weekly column for the New York Post and the Hill Magazine in the U.S. and the National Post in Canada.

Obama Takes Maine!

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the projected winner of Sunday’s Democratic presidential caucuses in Maine, according to the Associated Press and other media outlets. Obama dominated New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton , sweeping all four states that held nominating events on the first weekend after “Super Tuesday.”

The Maine Democratic Party withheld its own call on the contest early Sunday night, in part to await results from the state’s population center of Portland. But the results released by the party so far suggest the projection is on the mark. Obama led Clinton by 59.47 percent to 39.93 percent, with nearly 95 percent of the precincts reporting in the presidential preference vote at caucuses held in 420 towns and cities around the state.

A Republican For Obama

Taken from Ben Smith's Blog...Courtesy Andrew Sullivan
Boo! Im a Republican. Yes, you have found yourself in the company of a man who wears button down Oxfords, who flies his flag every holiday and prides himself in a neatly mowed lawn. But something happened in the last few years that has brought me here to this campaign... my party changed. Where once was a belief in the power of the individual, came a heavy, overbearing government that dared to challenge how people should live their lives. And then came the war. Where once I viewed the party as one who ended wars and focused on balanced budgets and living the American dream, there was now one that started one and leveraged our dreams with debt. And then came the loss of privacy. Where once there was the beiief in live and let live, there was now a strange curiosity on the part of the government, to peer into the most private parts of our lives. Where once was a party with a rather sunny disposition came one that was dark, glowering and saw the future as a threat ... a place to be fortified ... where dreams had to be put aside to allow in, the harsh realities of our times. I wanted to dream again. I wanted to crawl out of the cave that that day in September drove us to. I want to fly my flag not for our fallen soldiers but for our ideals again, I want to befriend my neighbors, be they black or white, gay or straight, Catholic, Muslim, Christian, or Jew.
I want to think that tomorrow can be better than today. I want to live free. I want to walk down a street anywhere in the world knowing that I come from a country that is admired and is a force for good. I heard the words of Barack Obama on one cold day in January, broadcast from the frozen fields of Iowa. And it was like the wind - a chinook wind that seemed to melt away the dark and cold that was offered up by candidates from both parties. And it was like the sun - with warming words that spoke of not taking it to the Republicans with anger or revenge, but getting them to join up in something bigger than a political party ... a political force. It dared to look at things differently like having the audacity to talk to everyone... even those we do not like be they Republicans or Iranians.

It came with an easy smile and words that made you believe it was all possible. It made me feel proud to be American again. So here I am. Boo! And there are other Republicans in the room too. Yes, we are a bit out of our sorts. But like you and the millions of other Democrats and Independents, we too want to believe in something again that is not weighted down by special interests and questionable ethics and certainly not a step back to any past. For we have only achieved the great things when our mind has been on the future. I look forward to marching with you.

The Numbers and the Super Delegate to Watch

Neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton is going to arrive at the Democratic convention in Denver with enough pledged delegates to win the Democratic nomination. As this reality has dawned on people, there has been much fretting about how the unelected super delegates could determine who the nominee is. I think this is highly unlikely. The super delegates are all party elders and know what damage would be done if a group of insiders appeared to subvert the democratic process.

If one candidate leads on the three metrics of delegates won in primaries and caucuses, states won and the popular vote then the super delegates will almost certainly row in behind them. At the moment, Obama is narrowly ahead in all there categories. Things will get complicated, though, if—say—Obama has won more delegates but Hillary more votes, or if the margin of difference is determined by whether Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of their delegates for voting too early, are seated or not.

The person to watch in all this is Al Gore. When it comes to the fairness of elections, no Democrat has a higher standing. What he asks the super delegates and the candidates to do will carry huge weight at the convention. Indeed, his role is now so important that it is probably, on balance, better for the Obama campaign that he does not endorse now so that he is seen as an honest-broker at the convention.
Courtesy James Forsyth, Spectator.co.uk

After Saturday, Here are the Numbers

Adding up all the votes each of the candidates has gotten thus far, Obama 8,228,000, Clinton 8,028,000; 48.4-to 47.3. Obama has won 18 states, Clinton has won 10 states. One, New Mexico, still too close to call. The current NBC political unit delegate estimate: Obama 1,009, Clinton 944, a lead of 65. That is just amongst elected delegates. And then, of course, we have the superdelegates. Obama says he has 174 of those, Clinton has 263 of those. If you put everything together, including superdelegates, Clinton would be up 24 delegates. If you just count the elected delegates, she's--Obama's up 65.

Brokered Convention anyone?

So that begs the question who are these Super Delegates?
They're former U.S. presidents, former U.S. vice presidents, governors, senators, members of Congress, distinguished party leaders, party activists.

So the primary ends with neither Hillary, nor Barack earning the magic number 2,025 to win the nomination. So the Super Delegates decide the Democratic nominee? The danger is...(Mr. David Brody) Americans look at things as, as just--your ordinary, regular guy says, "Is this fair or not?" And, and what will happen is, if Clinton or Obama are able to take advantage of the superdelegates in the end, some Americans might just say, "You know what? That's just not fair." And the last thing a Clinton or Obama want going into a general election is to be seen as someone that didn't do it the "right way." So will this convention be brokered before the convention by say...Al Gore? He certainly would be seen as a competent fellow to determine such a mess because he knows a little something about chaotic elections. See post above.

Could Obama be Colin Powell's choice?

CNN showed an interview with former Gen. Colin Powell last night in which the former secretary of state played his cards close to his chest when Wolf Blitzer asked him who he'd be supporting for president.

But based on his comments about the need for a presidential candidate who could repair America's standing in the world, Powell at times seemed to be indicating a strong inclination towards Sen. Barack Obama. Here are a few of Colin Powell's comments:

And I will ultimately vote for the person I believe brings to the American people the kind of vision the American people want to see for the next four years. A vision that reaches out to the rest of the world, that starts to restore confidence in America, that starts to restore favorable ratings to America.

Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years. I am going to be looking for the candidate that seems to me to be leading a party that is fully in sync with the candidate, and a party that will also reflect America's goodness and America's vision.

And I will be looking for the candidate that I think will be the most competent candidate. The one who can deal with problems and bring the government together with the Congress to solve these problems.

and

I think that Mr. Obama has done an incredible job in coming to where he is now on the Democratic side of this campaign. And I think he's been an exciting person on the political stage. He has energized a lot of people in America. He has energized a lot of people around the world. And so I think he is worth listening to and seeing what he stands for.

There are some positions he has that I wouldn't support, but that's the case with every candidate out there. And I think every American has an obligation right now at this moment in our history to look at all the candidates and to make a judgment not simply on the basis of ideology, or simply on the basis of political affiliation, but on the basis of, who is the best person for all of America and which party and what does that party look like? And how does that candidate relate to that party and the different wings of the party? And which party and which candidate is best able to take America in a positive direction over the next four years?

Photo of the Day

Woman in Red in Iraq. Courtesy Staff Sgt. Russell Lee Klika photo

Newsweek Poll: The Horse Race Continues...

The latest Newsweek national poll shows the Democratic race is a toss up with Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. Hillary Clinton, 42% to 41%.

Key findings: "Obama's support is strongest among African-Americans (68%), college graduates (49%) and men (47%). Clinton enjoys more support among those with a high-school education or less (48%), whites (44%), women (44%) and voters 60 and older (44%)." In the GOP race, Sen. John McCain holds a sizable lead over Mike Huckabee, 51% to 32%.

In The Know: New Iraqi Law Requires Waiting Period For Suicide Vest Purchases

Obama vs Clinton Hollywood Democratic Debate 3

The Missing New Mexico Ballots

The New Mexico Democratic Party caucus may be tainted by three ballot boxes that spent the night in the home of the Rio Arriba County party chair or the homes of other local election officials instead of being reported to the state party.

Those ballots still haven’t been counted, but they have been retrieved by the state party.

Several sources told me the ballot boxes spent the night at the home of Rio Arriba County Democratic Party Chair Theresa Martinez, whose state-lawmaker husband, Sen. Richard Martinez, endorsed Hillary Clinton. But Richard Martinez told Santa Fe New Mexican reporter Kate Nash that the boxes actually spent the night in the homes of three polling-place managers. He gave Nash no explanation for why the results from those ballots weren’t reported to the state party last night and why they were instead kept overnight in officials’ homes.

“The site managers locked them and they kept them and they took them to my wife this morning,” Nash quoted Richard Martinez as saying. State party officials and Theresa Martinez have not returned my calls seeking comment.

The three ballot boxes from Rio Arriba County and a fourth from Sandoval County account for the 2 percent of precincts that haven’t yet reported results from Tuesday’s caucus. With about 200 votes separating Clinton and Barack Obama, that’s huge. We’re talking about the ballots from half the polling places in Rio Arriba County.

I want to make sure this point is emphasized: Roughly half the votes from Rio Arriba County spent the night in the privacy of the home or homes of one or more election officials in boxes those officials may have had the ability to open. All the county party chair had to do last night to report the results was make a phone call. That never happened.

The ballot boxes were retrieved from Theresa Martinez by the state party this morning. I understand there was a big snowstorm up there, and I realize people were up late and might have slept in this morning. It’s possible – perhaps even likely – that there is nothing fishy going on here.

But there are valid concerns. Rio Arriba County has a history of election scandal.

The Obama and Clinton campaigns should have lawyers there trying to figure out what’s happening and ready to act if necessary. My understanding is that Obama attorneys are already on their way. The state party needs to quickly resolve this and tell the public how it’s going to allay fears that the election process is tainted beyond repair.

If the ballots are disqualified, voters are disenfranchised. If they’re counted, the process may be tainted. This is an incredibly close race. You have to wonder if, at the end of it all, the losing candidate will petition the DNC to not seat some or all of New Mexico’s delegates, arguing that the process here was fatally tainted. I wrote earlier today about a number of other problems with Tuesday’s caucus. This only adds to the list.

A number of Democrats have told me they’re furious with the state party over these issues. I’m trying to get to the bottom of it. Check back later today for updates.
Courtesy Heath Haussmen

Obama One, McCain Two, and Clinton Three

A new Time magazine poll compares potential general election match ups:

Obama 48%, McCain 41%
Clinton 46%, McCain 46%

According to the poll director, the difference is that "independents tilt toward McCain when he is matched up against Clinton But they tilt toward Obama when he is matched up against the Illinois Senator."

The question is do the Democrats want to win the White House or nominate the first women to be President?

Why Republicans Fear Obama and Delight in Hillary

Mr. Obama will not be easy for Republicans to attack. He will be hard to get at, hard to address. There are many reasons, but a primary one is that the fact of his race will freeze them. No one, no candidate, no party, no heavy-breathing consultant, will want to cross any line--lines that have never been drawn, that are sure to be shifting and not always visible--in approaching the first major-party African-American nominee for president of the United States.

He is the brilliant young black man as American dream. No consultant, no matter how opportunistic and hungry, will think it easy--or professionally desirable--to take him down in a low manner. If anything, they've learned from the Clintons in South Carolina what that gets you. With Mr. Obama the campaign will be about issues. "He'll raise your taxes." He will, and I suspect Americans may vote for him anyway. But the race won't go low.

Mrs. Clinton would be easier for Republicans. With her cavalcade of scandals, they'd be delighted to go at her. They'd get medals for it. Consultants would get rich on it.

The Democrats have it exactly wrong. Hillary is the easier candidate, Mr. Obama the tougher. Hillary brings negative; it's fair to hit her back with negative. Mr. Obama brings hope, and speaks of a better way. He's not Bambi, he's bulletproof.

The biggest problem for the Republicans will be that no matter what they say that is not issue oriented--"He's too young, he's never run anything, he's not fully baked"--the mainstream media will tag them as dealing in racial overtones, or undertones. You can bet on this. Go to the bank on it.

The Democrats continue not to recognize what they have in this guy. Believe me, Republican professionals know. They can tell.
Courtesy Peggy Noonan @ Wall Street Journal

Central Questions...

Courtesy New York Times...one of the central questions about the Obama candidacy, which may well go the heart of whether he can win the presidency. Is this campaign a series of surges of enthusiasm, often powered by the younger voters who form long lines waiting to hear Mr. Obama speak, that set expectations that are not met at the voting booth? Or is it rather a slow-building force, one that despite faltering in New Hampshire and falling short on Tuesday in big states like California has allowed Mr. Obama to battle one of the most formidable political dynasties to a draw and will eventually propel him to victory?

I tend to think it is the latter. No one gave the upstart junior Senator a chance last fall. Iowa shocked the nation. New Hampshire and Nevada anointed again, the inevitable one, Hillary Clinton. South Carolina made us ask...what is going on here? Super Tuesday demonstrated that this upstart from the Land of Lincoln not only has the temerity to challenge the incumbent, Hillary Clinton, but may well be able to out fundraise her and defeat head-to-head John McCain. Over the first 48 hours since Super Tuesday Hillary Clinton has raised $4 million, Barack Obama is at $7.2 million...let the drama continue....

Hillary + Barack = Brokered Convention

The Washington Post's Paul Kane: "We've done a bad job of explaining this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).

"Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination. To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obamb roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece. That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.

"So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting. Courtesy Political Wire

"Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and bothing finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates. And then the super delegates decide this thing. That's the math."

In Honor...

Five reasons Hillary should be worried

1. She lost the delegate derby. Pure and simple, this is a war to win delegates, one that might not be decided until this summer’s Democratic convention.

And when the smoke cleared this morning, it appeared that Barack Obama had ended up with slightly more delegates in the 22 states.

Obama’s campaign says the senator finished ahead by 14 delegates.

With results still coming in, Clinton’s campaign says the candidates finished within five or six delegates of each other. Either way, Super Tuesday was essentially a draw.

Clinton may still hold the edge overall, but Obama is closing in rapidly.

2. She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago.

At the time, national polls showed Clinton with a commanding lead — in some cases, by 10 points or more. That dominance is now gone.

One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him.

This is especially troubling for Clinton since the schedule slows dramatically now and a full month will pass before the next big-state showdown.

All of this allows candidates ample time to introduce themselves to voters in each state — which plays to Obama’s core strengths.

3. She lost more states. Obama carried 14 states, six more than Clinton, and showed appeal in every geographical region.

His win in bellwether Missouri was impressive by nearly every measure, marked by victories among men and women, secular and churchgoing voters, and urban and suburban voters.

4. She lost the January cash war. Money chases momentum, so Obama crushing’s 2-to-1 fundraising victory last month is revealing.

He raised more than $31 million; Clinton raised less than $14 million. The implication is hard to ignore: Democratic activists and donors are flocking to Obama at a pace that could have a profound effect on the race going forward.

5. The calendar is her enemy. Now that more than half the states have weighed in, there is a fairly predictable formula for determining who is most likely to win the upcoming contests.

In caucus states, Obama’s organizational strength shines: He has won seven of eight. Up next are three more caucus states, Washington, Nebraska and Maine.

Obama also runs tremendously well in states with large African-American populations, another promising sign since next Tuesday’s three primaries are in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia — all of which have significant percentages of black voters.

Then comes another caucus state, Hawaii, where Obama is viewed as a native son.

The bottom line is that it figures to be another month before Clinton hits a stretch of states — places like Ohio and Pennsylvania — where she will be strongly favored to win.

So it couldn’t be any clearer as to why the supposedly inevitable candidacy is anything but — even when she’s supposedly winning. Courtesy Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen @ Politico.com

Hillary $5 Million Dollar Loan

"We are very frustrated because we have a Supreme Court that seems determined to say that the wealthier have more right to free speech than the rest of us. For example, they say you couldn’t stop me from spending all the money I’ve saved over the last five years on Hillary's campaign if I wanted to, even though it would clearly violate the spirit of campaign finance reform," Bill Clinton, December 24, 2007.

So this explains...Hillary's $5 million dollar loan!
It's four times Obama's net worth. But she's the alleged tribune of the poor. Like her husband was black. And whence exactly did that $5 million come from? Her book royalties? Or did her husband bankroll it? Or was it drawn from tabloid plutocrat Ron Burkle's $20 million fork-over to Bill? These are all tantalizing questions. Maybe someone in the press will demand an answer. Andrew Sullivan

The Crying Game...Yes, She Did It, Again!

The second bout of public tears just before a crucial primary vote - after no evidence that Senator Hillary Clinton has a history of tearing up in front of the cameras - provokes the unavoidable question: should feminists actively vote against Clinton to defend the cause of female equality?

She is, it should be conceded, the most viable female candidate for the presidency in history. But feminism isn't just about women wielding power. Female monarchs and despots have ruled throughout history - and it was no thanks to feminism. Few would see Elizabeth I or a dynast like Eva Peron as feminist role models. What matters is not that they came to such prominence; but how they did it. Inheriting office is no achievement. In some ways, inheriting it, when you could have won it alone, is a rebuke to feminism. What marks a true feminist is a woman who gains democratic office through strictly meritocratic means. Think of Margaret Thatcher: a woman who came from lowly beginnings to master a chemistry degree and a legal career in the 1940s and 1950s, who won a seat in parliament single-handedly and eventually became a three-term prime minister for the Conservative party. Yes: the Conservative party. You think she didn't have to deal with prejudice and chauvinism? More than Hillary Clinton will ever know. But she never engaged for a second in the gender politics and nepotistic shenanigans that Clinton has. Thatcher had a rich husband but he was not a stepping stone to politics. She had two children, but never used them for public attention or photo-ops. She did it all - indisputably - on her own merits.

Hillary Clinton could have done the same. Continue article @ Andrew Sullivan

The first cry...she had a moment one can accept that, but today at Yale University really smacks of political trickery. It is a clear stunt, pathetic, is she really this desperate?