Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Previewing Saturday's DNC Rules Committee Meeting

Here's some "pre-game" analysis:
1. While the room will be packed with lawyers, everyone should realize the decision will be less about actual rules than the politics and perceptions of the Democratic primary process. There is no way the DNC will let a rules committee decide the victor of the nomination.
2. Don't expect many fireworks. The Obama campaign is urging its supporters to stay quiet and protests by Clinton supporters could backfire and cause the committee to reject the challenges entirely.
3. The most likely outcome is that the rules committee will reinstate 50% of the Florida and Michigan delegates. According to a memo, party lawyers don't believe they have the authority to do any more than that.
4. The twist, as First Read notes, are the "uncommitted" delegates from Michigan's primary. "If the Rules committee decides to accept the January primary results then it's not clear, via the DNC charter, that it's within the party's rules to assign uncommitted delegates to Obama."
5. Although she will probably have succeeded in changing the "magic number" for the nomination, Sen. Hillary Clinton will still likely be disappointed by the committee's decision. The math doesn't work for her now and won't work for her after Saturday either.

Think Gas is High? Try Europe

On Tuesday, hundreds of British truck drivers in London and Cardiff brought traffic to a crawl in a campaign to get their government to lower taxes on diesel fuel, which now costs over $11 per U.S. gallon (3.8 liters). Other businesses owners who rely heavily on gas use — including farmers, ambulance and taxi drivers, and private bus companies — have joined the protest movement or are preparing to do so.

Why so high?

One big reason for the difference is that European governments put a much higher tax burden on fuel than the U.S. does. State and federal taxes currently make up just 11%of the pump price in the U.S., according to the Energy Information Administration; in France and the U.K., taxes account for an average of around 70%. Bounce 2 Time to read full article.

Russert: Reacts to Scott McClellan's book

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Meet The Press

A few things struck me about this. Number one, race isn't an "obstacle," racism is an obstacle. The problem isn't that Obama is black, the problem is that some folks have a problem with the fact that Obama is black. Courtesy Jack and Jill Politics

Portland's Shooting Guard

Saturday, May 24, 2008

A Real Shocker!

A Newsweek poll homes in:
Who exactly are these high Racial Resentment Index voters? A majority, 61 percent, have less than a four-year college education, many are older (44 percent were over the age of 60 compared to just 18 percent under the age of 40) and nearly half (46 percent) live in the South.

And we wonder why Clinton won Appalachia....

The Lakers' Win Over The Spurs, Up 2-0

Keith Olbermann on Clinton's RFK Assassination Comment

Friday, May 23, 2008

Profiling California's war dead

A census of some of the best of America. And how moving that so many were immigrants:
At 7, Victor H. Toledo-Pulido was smuggled across the border from Mexico through rugged mountains into California. He and another soldier were killed in May 2007 when a roadside bomb exploded near their vehicle southeast of Baghdad.

"They judge us, and they say we just come to take their jobs and positions, but we also make sacrifices. Victor worked since he was little, in the fields and in restaurants," his mother, Maria Gaspar, said after the 22-year-old Mexican was killed in Iraq. "He was Mexican, but he thought like an American. And he gave his life for this country."

Dozens more were the children of immigrants, including Bunny Long, 22, a Marine lance corporal whose parents came from Cambodia, where the Khmer Rouge imprisoned them for four years in a labor camp.

"This is our home," his father, Sim Long, said after his son died. "I'm very proud that Bunny was able to give back to his country. Our country."
Read more after the Bounce 2 LA Times

"We All Have A Piece Of Each Other"

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Petraeus: More troop cuts possible

Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said Thursday that a decision on Iraq troop levels is likely by September...

The Border Fence

As the Department of Homeland Security pushes to complete 670 miles of fencing along the Mexican border by the end of this year, it is confronting the sharpest resistance yet...
Homeland Security secretary, Michael Chertoff:
"I don't believe the fence is a cure-all," Chertoff said. "Nor do I believe it is a waste. Yes, you can get over it; yes, you can get under it. But it is a useful tool that makes it more difficult for people to cross. It is one of a number of tools we have, and you've got to use all of the tools."

Patricio Ahumada Jr., the mayor of Brownsville, Texas:
"Homeland Security is using it to give a false sense of security to middle America that it will keep illegal immigrants and terrorists out, but it just isn't true."
To read on Bounce 2 International Herald Tribune

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Racial Attitudes: Kentucky and Oregon Comparison


Kentucky:
About one in five whites said race played a role in choosing a candidate Tuesday _ on par with results in several other Southern states. Nine in 10 of that group backed Clinton _ the highest proportion yet among the 28 states where that question has been asked in exit polls.

Only three in 10 whites who said race was a factor said they would vote for Obama should he oppose McCain in November. Nearly four in 10 said they would back McCain, while the rest said they wouldn't vote.

Oregon:
...only one in 10 voters in Oregon said the race of the candidates was important, one of the lowest proportions in primary states this year. They were evenly divided between the two Democrats, but heavily backed Obama when he was pitted against McCain.

Russert: What the Results Mean...

Magic Numbers

With just 86 pledged delegates up for grabs in Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, and 212 remaining undeclared superdelegates, Obama just needs about 20-25 superdelegate endorsements to hit the magic 2,026 number to claim the Democratic nomination, assuming he just splits the remaining 86 in half. But it’s quite likely that the magic number is going to change, because it appears that the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has every intention of coming up with some sort of Florida/Michigan compromise. The one number we know it won’t be is 2,210 -- the number the Clinton campaign keeps using, because there seems to be little appetite among DNC types (still angry at the calendar mess those two states created) from seating the delegations in full. That means some sort of cut. The most likely magic numbers would be 2,131 or 2,118, which would cut the two delegations in half, either keeping the supers fully in tact (the former number) or cutting them in half, too (the latter). And so if you have those new magic numbers, then Obama needs approximately 50 new superdelegate endorsements to take enough delegates off the table that there is no mathematical possibility for Clinton to secure enough delegates to win the nomination without somehow convincing Obama pledged delegates and/or supers to switch.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

McCain's Visit to SNL

Obama + PDX = 75,000

(Q) Some 75,000 people flocked to Portland’s waterfront Sunday to watch Barack Obama speak, making it the biggest rally the campaign has held to date. Thousands stood on the lawn, dozens watched from boats and from the bridge stretching across the Willamette River. A few kayakers held their paddles and tried to keep their kayaks straight as they watched the candidate, who stood on a makeshift platform. Bounce 2 First Read
Andrew Sullivan: I ask again: who else can do this? In any party? Anywhere?

The Real McCain/Rubin Interview