Obama vs Clinton Hollywood Democratic Debate 3

The Missing New Mexico Ballots

The New Mexico Democratic Party caucus may be tainted by three ballot boxes that spent the night in the home of the Rio Arriba County party chair or the homes of other local election officials instead of being reported to the state party.

Those ballots still haven’t been counted, but they have been retrieved by the state party.

Several sources told me the ballot boxes spent the night at the home of Rio Arriba County Democratic Party Chair Theresa Martinez, whose state-lawmaker husband, Sen. Richard Martinez, endorsed Hillary Clinton. But Richard Martinez told Santa Fe New Mexican reporter Kate Nash that the boxes actually spent the night in the homes of three polling-place managers. He gave Nash no explanation for why the results from those ballots weren’t reported to the state party last night and why they were instead kept overnight in officials’ homes.

“The site managers locked them and they kept them and they took them to my wife this morning,” Nash quoted Richard Martinez as saying. State party officials and Theresa Martinez have not returned my calls seeking comment.

The three ballot boxes from Rio Arriba County and a fourth from Sandoval County account for the 2 percent of precincts that haven’t yet reported results from Tuesday’s caucus. With about 200 votes separating Clinton and Barack Obama, that’s huge. We’re talking about the ballots from half the polling places in Rio Arriba County.

I want to make sure this point is emphasized: Roughly half the votes from Rio Arriba County spent the night in the privacy of the home or homes of one or more election officials in boxes those officials may have had the ability to open. All the county party chair had to do last night to report the results was make a phone call. That never happened.

The ballot boxes were retrieved from Theresa Martinez by the state party this morning. I understand there was a big snowstorm up there, and I realize people were up late and might have slept in this morning. It’s possible – perhaps even likely – that there is nothing fishy going on here.

But there are valid concerns. Rio Arriba County has a history of election scandal.

The Obama and Clinton campaigns should have lawyers there trying to figure out what’s happening and ready to act if necessary. My understanding is that Obama attorneys are already on their way. The state party needs to quickly resolve this and tell the public how it’s going to allay fears that the election process is tainted beyond repair.

If the ballots are disqualified, voters are disenfranchised. If they’re counted, the process may be tainted. This is an incredibly close race. You have to wonder if, at the end of it all, the losing candidate will petition the DNC to not seat some or all of New Mexico’s delegates, arguing that the process here was fatally tainted. I wrote earlier today about a number of other problems with Tuesday’s caucus. This only adds to the list.

A number of Democrats have told me they’re furious with the state party over these issues. I’m trying to get to the bottom of it. Check back later today for updates.
Courtesy Heath Haussmen

Obama One, McCain Two, and Clinton Three

A new Time magazine poll compares potential general election match ups:

Obama 48%, McCain 41%
Clinton 46%, McCain 46%

According to the poll director, the difference is that "independents tilt toward McCain when he is matched up against Clinton But they tilt toward Obama when he is matched up against the Illinois Senator."

The question is do the Democrats want to win the White House or nominate the first women to be President?

Why Republicans Fear Obama and Delight in Hillary

Mr. Obama will not be easy for Republicans to attack. He will be hard to get at, hard to address. There are many reasons, but a primary one is that the fact of his race will freeze them. No one, no candidate, no party, no heavy-breathing consultant, will want to cross any line--lines that have never been drawn, that are sure to be shifting and not always visible--in approaching the first major-party African-American nominee for president of the United States.

He is the brilliant young black man as American dream. No consultant, no matter how opportunistic and hungry, will think it easy--or professionally desirable--to take him down in a low manner. If anything, they've learned from the Clintons in South Carolina what that gets you. With Mr. Obama the campaign will be about issues. "He'll raise your taxes." He will, and I suspect Americans may vote for him anyway. But the race won't go low.

Mrs. Clinton would be easier for Republicans. With her cavalcade of scandals, they'd be delighted to go at her. They'd get medals for it. Consultants would get rich on it.

The Democrats have it exactly wrong. Hillary is the easier candidate, Mr. Obama the tougher. Hillary brings negative; it's fair to hit her back with negative. Mr. Obama brings hope, and speaks of a better way. He's not Bambi, he's bulletproof.

The biggest problem for the Republicans will be that no matter what they say that is not issue oriented--"He's too young, he's never run anything, he's not fully baked"--the mainstream media will tag them as dealing in racial overtones, or undertones. You can bet on this. Go to the bank on it.

The Democrats continue not to recognize what they have in this guy. Believe me, Republican professionals know. They can tell.
Courtesy Peggy Noonan @ Wall Street Journal

Central Questions...

Courtesy New York Times...one of the central questions about the Obama candidacy, which may well go the heart of whether he can win the presidency. Is this campaign a series of surges of enthusiasm, often powered by the younger voters who form long lines waiting to hear Mr. Obama speak, that set expectations that are not met at the voting booth? Or is it rather a slow-building force, one that despite faltering in New Hampshire and falling short on Tuesday in big states like California has allowed Mr. Obama to battle one of the most formidable political dynasties to a draw and will eventually propel him to victory?

I tend to think it is the latter. No one gave the upstart junior Senator a chance last fall. Iowa shocked the nation. New Hampshire and Nevada anointed again, the inevitable one, Hillary Clinton. South Carolina made us ask...what is going on here? Super Tuesday demonstrated that this upstart from the Land of Lincoln not only has the temerity to challenge the incumbent, Hillary Clinton, but may well be able to out fundraise her and defeat head-to-head John McCain. Over the first 48 hours since Super Tuesday Hillary Clinton has raised $4 million, Barack Obama is at $7.2 million...let the drama continue....

Hillary + Barack = Brokered Convention

The Washington Post's Paul Kane: "We've done a bad job of explaining this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).

"Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination. To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obamb roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece. That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.

"So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting. Courtesy Political Wire

"Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and bothing finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates. And then the super delegates decide this thing. That's the math."

In Honor...

Five reasons Hillary should be worried

1. She lost the delegate derby. Pure and simple, this is a war to win delegates, one that might not be decided until this summer’s Democratic convention.

And when the smoke cleared this morning, it appeared that Barack Obama had ended up with slightly more delegates in the 22 states.

Obama’s campaign says the senator finished ahead by 14 delegates.

With results still coming in, Clinton’s campaign says the candidates finished within five or six delegates of each other. Either way, Super Tuesday was essentially a draw.

Clinton may still hold the edge overall, but Obama is closing in rapidly.

2. She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago.

At the time, national polls showed Clinton with a commanding lead — in some cases, by 10 points or more. That dominance is now gone.

One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him.

This is especially troubling for Clinton since the schedule slows dramatically now and a full month will pass before the next big-state showdown.

All of this allows candidates ample time to introduce themselves to voters in each state — which plays to Obama’s core strengths.

3. She lost more states. Obama carried 14 states, six more than Clinton, and showed appeal in every geographical region.

His win in bellwether Missouri was impressive by nearly every measure, marked by victories among men and women, secular and churchgoing voters, and urban and suburban voters.

4. She lost the January cash war. Money chases momentum, so Obama crushing’s 2-to-1 fundraising victory last month is revealing.

He raised more than $31 million; Clinton raised less than $14 million. The implication is hard to ignore: Democratic activists and donors are flocking to Obama at a pace that could have a profound effect on the race going forward.

5. The calendar is her enemy. Now that more than half the states have weighed in, there is a fairly predictable formula for determining who is most likely to win the upcoming contests.

In caucus states, Obama’s organizational strength shines: He has won seven of eight. Up next are three more caucus states, Washington, Nebraska and Maine.

Obama also runs tremendously well in states with large African-American populations, another promising sign since next Tuesday’s three primaries are in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia — all of which have significant percentages of black voters.

Then comes another caucus state, Hawaii, where Obama is viewed as a native son.

The bottom line is that it figures to be another month before Clinton hits a stretch of states — places like Ohio and Pennsylvania — where she will be strongly favored to win.

So it couldn’t be any clearer as to why the supposedly inevitable candidacy is anything but — even when she’s supposedly winning. Courtesy Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen @ Politico.com

Hillary $5 Million Dollar Loan

"We are very frustrated because we have a Supreme Court that seems determined to say that the wealthier have more right to free speech than the rest of us. For example, they say you couldn’t stop me from spending all the money I’ve saved over the last five years on Hillary's campaign if I wanted to, even though it would clearly violate the spirit of campaign finance reform," Bill Clinton, December 24, 2007.

So this explains...Hillary's $5 million dollar loan!
It's four times Obama's net worth. But she's the alleged tribune of the poor. Like her husband was black. And whence exactly did that $5 million come from? Her book royalties? Or did her husband bankroll it? Or was it drawn from tabloid plutocrat Ron Burkle's $20 million fork-over to Bill? These are all tantalizing questions. Maybe someone in the press will demand an answer. Andrew Sullivan

The Crying Game...Yes, She Did It, Again!

The second bout of public tears just before a crucial primary vote - after no evidence that Senator Hillary Clinton has a history of tearing up in front of the cameras - provokes the unavoidable question: should feminists actively vote against Clinton to defend the cause of female equality?

She is, it should be conceded, the most viable female candidate for the presidency in history. But feminism isn't just about women wielding power. Female monarchs and despots have ruled throughout history - and it was no thanks to feminism. Few would see Elizabeth I or a dynast like Eva Peron as feminist role models. What matters is not that they came to such prominence; but how they did it. Inheriting office is no achievement. In some ways, inheriting it, when you could have won it alone, is a rebuke to feminism. What marks a true feminist is a woman who gains democratic office through strictly meritocratic means. Think of Margaret Thatcher: a woman who came from lowly beginnings to master a chemistry degree and a legal career in the 1940s and 1950s, who won a seat in parliament single-handedly and eventually became a three-term prime minister for the Conservative party. Yes: the Conservative party. You think she didn't have to deal with prejudice and chauvinism? More than Hillary Clinton will ever know. But she never engaged for a second in the gender politics and nepotistic shenanigans that Clinton has. Thatcher had a rich husband but he was not a stepping stone to politics. She had two children, but never used them for public attention or photo-ops. She did it all - indisputably - on her own merits.

Hillary Clinton could have done the same. Continue article @ Andrew Sullivan

The first cry...she had a moment one can accept that, but today at Yale University really smacks of political trickery. It is a clear stunt, pathetic, is she really this desperate?

FBI wants database of Americans' physical traits

FBI expected to award $1 billion contract to help collect data on people
Privacy advocate says it's the first step toward a "surveillance society"
FBI says it's needed to help track terrorists and other criminals
Palm prints and optical eye scans likely to become more common
Read full article @ CNN

Clinton Health Plan May Mean Tapping Pay

Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday she might be willing to garnish the wages of workers who refuse to buy health insurance to achieve coverage for all Americans.

Clinton has not always specified the enforcement measures she would embrace, but when pressed on ABC's ``This Week,'' she said: ``I think there are a number of mechanisms'' that are possible, including ``going after people's wages, automatic enrollment.''

Clinton said such measures would apply only to workers who can afford health coverage but refuse to buy it, which puts undue pressure on hospitals and emergency rooms. With her proposals for subsidies, she said, ``it will be affordable for everyone.''

And she is going to tell us who can afford it? Major mistake on her part...Obama needs to put this in an Ad immediately!

Face of the Day

Courtesy Staff Sgt. Russell Lee Klika photo

Iraq...Mentally Ill as Suicide Bombers?

Two mentally disabled women were strapped with explosives Friday and sent into busy Baghdad markets, where they were blown up by remote control, a top Iraqi government official said.

The bombs killed at least 98 people and wounded more than 200 at two popular pet markets on the holiest day of the week for Muslims, authorities said.

In both bombings, the attackers were mentally disabled women whose explosive belts were remotely detonated, Gen. Qasim Atta, spokesman for Baghdad's security plan, told state television.

Atta said the women were strapped with dynamite and ball bearings, citing members of the bomb squad. The explosives were detonated via cell phone, he said.

An Atta aide said that people referred to the bomber at central Baghdad's al-Ghazl market as the "crazy woman" and that the bomber at a second market had an unspecified birth disability.

The aide said authorities believe the women were unaware of plans to detonate the explosives.

Obama, Clinton Statistically Tied in National Poll

Two days before the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses, Gallup Poll Daily tracking data show Hillary Clinton (46%) and Barack Obama (44%) in a statistical dead heat in national Democratic voters' preferences for the nomination. This is the closest the candidates have been since the daily tracking program began in early January.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain leads Mitt Romney, 43% to 24%.

Super Tuesday...

These green states are the stakes for Hillary and Barack...who will prevail or will it be a draw?
Crowd Sizes...

Obama gets 15,000 in Ada County (Boise), Idaho. That's 7 times the number who caucused in Idaho in 2004.

Obama gets 20,000 in Minneapolis, which is way more than the 6000 one correspondent e-mailed. And Obama goes to Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis where the Rams play tonight, which seats 70,000. Will he fill that?

HRC gets 10,000+ in San Jose, per her campaign and law enforcement. (The local paper put it at 4000).

McCain gets 1,000 in Birmingham...Ouch!

Hillary Clinton at Wal-Mart: thrashing unions, jobs overseas

Hillary's six-years on the Board of Walmart...

Quote of the Day

"If you've got a Hillary and McCain race, you've got a third option: That's the pistol on the bed table." Pat Buchanan on MSNBC.

Who would have thought I could totally agree with Pat Buchanan....

FedEx vs. Government Bureaucracy -- Newt Gingrich

Newt being funny and real....

Barack Obama - Yes We Can music video

Is this the beginning of something larger than an election or is it just good marketing? We will soon see...the drama of 2008 continues....