Now that Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina have voted, at least in one party, one thing is perfectly clear: While the identities of the two major-party nominees are not yet certain, the ranks on both sides have thinned dramatically and the finalists have emerged. For the Democrats, the nominee will either be Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, in that order of probability, and for the Republicans, John McCain or Mitt Romney, with Rudy Giuliani a longshot possibility should he win Florida on January 29th. Notice that we said "win", not second place, for Giuliani. Unquestioned victory in the Sunshine State is now Rudy's only chance to be taken seriously since he has done miserably in the first five contests and has chosen to campaign almost exclusively of late in Florida.
On the Democratic side, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada have all been highly competitive. Obama won the Hawkeye State by +8, and Clinton won the Granite State by +3 and the Silver State by +6. Obama is favored in South Carolina and he needs the victory on Saturday badly to keep Clinton from winning three in a row. Should Clinton capitalize on the electorate's newfound focus on the economy (rather than Iraq) and utilize her husband's appeal to African-American voters to score an upset in the Palmetto State, then she would be justified in requesting the title of undisputed Democratic frontrunner. With a win in South Carolina, she would likely win Florida handsomely a few days later, setting the stage for a very solid performance on Super Duper Tsumani Tuesday on February 5th. On the other hand, should Obama capture South Carolina, he would set the pattern of back-and-forth victories that would enable him to survive a loss in Florida and go on to win his share of states and delegates on February 5th. To read more of Larry Sabato's article Crystalball '08
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